When economists spoke of “Europe at two speeds,” they were referring to the gap between the countries in that region that were growing the most and others that were relegated. Three decades later, a similar phenomenon seems to occur in Argentina: areas and sectors that sustain average growth and others that are punished by an economic policy and an exhausted model..
Face and neck. The Argentine economy grew 4.4% on average during 2025 and economic activity grew 1.9% year-on-year in January 2026. These numbers could be surprising because they coexist with other red-tinted numbers: a fall in industrial production, erosion of the purchasing power of salaries, company closures and inflation that has been slowly rising since May of last year. But it is also mixed with the perspective of a record agricultural campaign, with rising meat exports, a surplus energy balance and the recovery of the mining sector.
Heterogeneity is also tied to a map of “winning” and “losing” areas of the last two years. According to the consulting firm’s report Invecq, the dynamics behind the January number are substantially different from that of December, when the index had grown 1.8%. In that month, the rise was driven by a boom in the ‘winning’ sectors and specific factors: agriculture grew 25% monthly due to the wheat harvest, and energy rose 4.9% driven by the heat wave. In January those engines “switched off” – agriculture fell 7.8% in the month and energy fell 3.6% -, but the index remained positive, helped by increases in “losing” sectors: industry and construction grew 1.5% monthly and commerce +1.4%. “In this way, we see that in January the winning sectors fell, but remain +15.3% compared to the level of November 2023, while the losers had an improvement, but remain -4.9% below the level at the beginning of the government, and have been stagnant since June 2025”, he maintains.
Precisely, Map Latam partner economist Juan Pablo Ronderos emphasizes that it is not just a question of sectors or their disaggregates, but that it depends on the business models for each sector. “Even companies in highly competitive sectors can fail in this new business framework in Argentina and there are plenty of examples in recent months in this regard.“, he adds, so he prefers to refer, rather than to winning and losing sectors, to winning models and models that must be converted. “This is where the next stage of Argentine growth is played out,” he concludes.
Green boom. A particular case is that of agribusiness. In addition to exchange and fiscal oscillations (which influence the real parity for the exporter), other variables play a role, ranging from the cost of inputs, local taxes, financing and climatic chance. The economist Roman Danteprofessor and researcher at the Center for Agribusiness and Food of the Austral University, The conflict in the Middle East raised the cost of energy and fertilizers – with increases of up to 40% in nitrogen -, while the possibility of an extension of the trade agreement between the United States and China in May adds expectations of greater demand. “New biofuel regulations are added in the United States, interpreted by the market as bullish for soybeans”he points out. He projects that it is likely that there will be a migration of crops towards oilseeds due to greater profitability, but also requiring more initial investment. ““All this generates indirect upward pressure on grains, because it increases production costs and conditions planting decisions.”concludes Romano.
On the meat side, the situation is on a plateau after a year of strong relative increases and especially in the November-January quarter, almost tripling general inflation. The opening of exports to the North American market and the increase in domestic prices also altered the meat consumption mix in Argentina, one of the two countries in the world (along with Uruguay) with the highest consumption of animal proteins per inhabitant (including pork, poultry and sheep).
In a study dedicated to the bovine meat sector carried out by researchers Juan Manuel Garzón and Franco Artusso of the Mediterranean Foundationpoints out that this market is going through an inflection point. “At the beginning of 2026, prices reached historic highs in real terms, both on the counter and on the farm, in a context marked by supply restrictions and signs of recomposition of the livestock cycle, at the same time that the international scenario presents firm prices and external demand that continues to drive,” explains. In the Cañuelas market, the steer, the main category of domestic consumption, averaged $4,745 per live kilo, 27% above February 2025 and 43% more than its 2006–2025 average value. And finally, at the international level there is an increase in the price of meat, associated with lower production, in a context in which demand would remain at relatively high levels.
Prices at war. Due to its great weight in the basket that measures the CPI (10% of the weighting), the impact of the livestock business cycle on the inflationary rebound, in addition to the transfer to prices of the mid-year devaluation jump and the increase in the interest rate to contain it, was decisive so that what was previously seen as an inflationary ceiling (2% monthly) has become a floor in upward movement. Private estimates give a figure for March that begins with 3, but now the burden of responsibility is no longer a food issue and is oriented towards the fuel value chain. For the economist Fernando Marullthe oil crisis and the relative increase in fuel prices is less “harmful” for inflationary purposes than what occurred with meat and fresh food (which triples the relative weight of the impact of the pump in the CPI) and projects a GDP growth of between 4% and 4.5% for 2026 thanks to the statistical “drag” of last year.
Estimates of a trade surplus for this year also play in favor of a scenario that sees as probable an additional flow of investments in the two sectors that currently attract most of the projects covered under the RIGI: oil and gas and mining. In 2025 the energy trade surplus reached US$7,815 million (+37% over the previous year) and is projected at US$8,800 million for this year; while the miner had a record of US$818 million in January, driven by the higher value of gold, especially. “Dollars will come out of your ears,” he predicted. Javier Milei to the president of the Central Bank during the “Argentina Week” in New York. Of course, so that this eventual accumulation of foreign currency does not end up, once again under the mattress, as has been happening so far this year: according to an analysis by IDESA, based on official data, the trade balance in goods was positive at US$4,000 billion, international loans to private companies based in the country were +US$3,800 million and hoarding by human beings was +US$4,900 million. To get the wheels turning again, you should link that savings with consumption and investment. If not, the gap between “winning and losing” sectors and areas will continue to widen.
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