PBL makes climate change risks concrete: crop failures, subsidence of houses, and ‘an end to the Four Days Marches’

The Netherlands is not sufficiently aware of the enormous consequences and risks of climate change. The government must opt ​​for a series of measures in the coming years to prevent extreme heat, prolonged drought and heavy rainfall from having very serious consequences in more than twenty years. Examples include “thousands of people” who die prematurely every year due to extreme heat and “an estimated 425,000 homes” that will suffer foundation damage as a result of drought until 2050, at a cost of 60 billion euros. The measures are also necessary to prevent these consequences from affecting particularly vulnerable population groups.

Researchers from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) write this in a report. The study, titled Beyond the risks: choices for a climate-proof living environmentdescribes how the Netherlands can arm itself against the consequences of climate change. It first report was published two years ago and described ‘the state of affairs’. There are two “directions” to adapt the country, the researchers say.

The Netherlands can protect itself against increasing heat by technical adjustments, such as more air conditioning and sunshades, and against prolonged drought by precise ‘drip irrigation’ of agricultural land and storing water in water tanks. In this direction, called “intensifying,” the society “continues to do as much as possible the activities it does now and in existing locations,” the report said.

The researchers call the second direction “transformation”. This involves a more natural adaptation to changing weather. “This makes society more resilient to various, uncertain consequences of climate change,” the report said. This involves, for example, the construction of flood plains, more water, trees and parks in the cities and growing crops that are resistant to salinization of the water.

More support for ‘transformation’

The researchers think that a “mix” of technical and more natural directions will prove to be wise. Well, they say, there is more support among Dutch people for ‘transforming’ space. This is ‘more acceptable’ than the technical approach of ‘intensifying’. But whatever direction politicians choose, it is wise to always take the effects of climate change into account when investing in spatial planning. “Do everything climate-adaptively,” it says, so that “additional burden and costs are prevented” later. This applies, for example, to where and how the Netherlands wants to build 900,000 homes in the coming years. This should not only prevent houses from flooding and keep them cool in times of heat, but also reduce the risk of loss of drinking water, electricity and internet.

In general, the Netherlands must be prepared for more damage and nuisance due to heat, drought and flooding. And so government, companies, people and communities must “know how to act” when that happens. This “social resilience” must be increased, according to the Planning Bureau, through campaigns, disaster plans, exercises and arranging shelter for victims, among other things.

The average temperature in the Netherlands has risen by 2.5 degrees since the measurements began in 1901. And it is getting warmer, drier and wetter. The consequences are health risks, failed agricultural harvests, decline in the quality of nature, power outages and loss of archaeological and intangible heritage. The elderly, children and chronically ill people in particular are relatively badly affected by heat, especially in warm cities. PBL: “Without further measures, by 2050 two-thirds of all multi-family homes, such as gallery and porch flats, ground-floor and upstairs apartments, will be insufficiently protected against heat, resulting in less living comfort and a high chance of warm sleepless nights.”

Furthermore, without measures, labor productivity will decline and the survival of cultural events such as skating tours, flower parades and the Nijmegen Four Days Marches will be threatened.

Foundation damage and forest fires

Due to the drought, the Netherlands is at increased risk of a low groundwater level, resulting in foundation damage, forest fires and a shortage of fresh water. The latter is a major problem for agriculture, among others. In addition to long periods of drought, the Netherlands also has to deal with “extremely heavy or prolonged rain showers”. With such downpours, where 25 millimeters or more falls in an hour, flooding can last for several days and flooding can cause a lot of damage.

It is, the PBL warns, “the vulnerable people on whom the impact is greatest.” These are people with fragile health, but also people with little money. Not only will they find it difficult to afford air conditioning, sunshades and repairs to damaged foundations, they will also be hit relatively hard by the rising costs of living. Food, drinking water and energy
can become more expensive, just like insurance premiums and the costs of water management.

In short, adaptation to climate change is “inevitable,” says Planning Bureau director Marko Hekkert in the report. “The question is not whether the Netherlands will change, but whether we are able to build a country that remains livable, fair and resilient even in a warmer, drier and wetter climate.”

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