The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is felt as far away as the Ampèrestraat in Utrecht. There, in the popular Zuilen district, there is an apartment for sale of 61 square meters, renovated, with garden, energy label D. Asking price: 400,000 euros.
Sabina Kurlit and Maciej Nawrocki (both 28) come to view it during the Open House Day of the NVM real estate agency association this Saturday. Since the American-Israeli attack on Iran four weeks ago, mortgage interest rates have risen by about 0.3 percentage points. On a mortgage where the interest rate is fixed for ten years, you now pay an average of just under 4 percent interest.
Nawrocki, an electrical engineer, heaves a deep sigh. He calls the increased mortgage interest rates “a bit worrying.” Nawrocki and Kurlit, both from Poland, feel “under pressure” to buy a house, they say. It is “still cheaper than renting, although purchase prices were lower two to three years ago,” says Nawrocki. “And it is a long-term investment,” adds Kurlit. But if the war in Iran lasts any longer, mortgage interest rates could become “even worse”, she fears.
The war that drives up mortgage interest rates – it works as follows. Iran has made the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for oil and gas, virtually unnavigable and is launching attacks on Gulf states. This has driven up oil and gas prices worldwide. These price increases are expected to have a broad impact on the economy. In short, inflation occurs. In response, the European Central Bank is preparing for interest rate increases. Investors anticipate this: interest rates have already started to rise on the capital markets. The mortgage interest rate is strongly influenced by the capital market interest rate.
In the Dutch housing market, this chain effect is most noticeable in the large cities, ING wrote last week in an analysis. There are many starters active there, who often have to finance their first home at the current mortgage interest rate. For a mortgage of 350,000 euros, the interest rate increase makes a difference of approximately 50 euros gross per month, the bank calculated. The interest rate increase also reduces the maximum mortgage by about 3 percent.
Lara Koeman (29, communications advisor) and Mattijs van der Laan (28, fund coordinator) are such starters. “In the background,” mortgage interest rates play a role in their home search, says Van der Laan. What they mainly encounter is the enormous competition in the segment they are looking for: the asking price range of between 3.5 and 4 tons. Koeman: “We have already been outbid three times by people who paid between 75,000 euros and a hundred thousand euros above the asking price.” They themselves cannot outbid endlessly: they take “some savings” with them, but no large inheritance or donation. Fortunately, they “don’t necessarily” have to leave their rental home in the center of Utrecht, although they think it is “wise” to buy a house as a future investment.
In the event of an abrupt increase in mortgage interest rates, the housing market can cool down quickly, as happened after the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022. When mortgage interest rates peaked at more than 4.5 percent, house prices in the Netherlands fell on average in 2023.
Now, in the spring of 2026, there is no noticeable cooling in Utrecht. By noon counts NRC in the house in Ampèrestraat, eight interested parties were in the house at the same time, all young, mostly couples. Owner Maartje Abrahams (32) receives the viewers herself. When someone rings the doorbell again, the cheerful Abrahams says: “I have to divide my time a bit, take a look around and feel free to open cupboards and doors.”
Abrahams, marketing manager, hopes that buyers will not “overbid” on her home due to the increased mortgage interest rate. Two months ago she bought a new house in Breda, which she is going to renovate. She wants to use the surplus value built up in Utrecht for this purpose. And so she hopes that the house “will be sold for top price.”
Home seekers at the Open House Day in The Hague
ANP / Lina Selg
In an apartment on the twelfth floor (107 m2asking price 5 tons, energy label A) in the Tuindorp district, with several large apartment buildings on the edge, real estate agent Nardi Kanters is sitting at the table with coffee and Easter eggs. Interested parties of varying ages – from their twenties to those in their eighties – occasionally drop in. “The interest is higher than expected,” says Kanters. She does not expect the housing market in Utrecht to take a hit due to the increased mortgage interest rate. “In 2022-2023 the market here has remained at the same level, not collapsed.” How does she explain that? “There is a lot of housing shortage and there is also a lot of money among people.”
Jeanette de Regt (61) takes the time to take in the apartment, with its impressive view of the city. De Regt, who works for the CNV trade union, is clearly charmed by the house and will probably make an offer for it, she says. She finds the increase in mortgage interest rates “difficult”, especially in combination with “having to make quick decisions and having to outbid”. She finances the purchase for about half with her own money – “I have worked for 37 years” – and she is therefore less susceptible to interest rates than most young starters who rely more on a mortgage.
It is mainly home buyers with low incomes, who are completely dependent on a mortgage, who notice the increase in mortgage interest rates, says Robin Ezendam of real estate agency Grift en Gracht. He receives a steady stream of interested people, including local residents, in a house in the Overvecht district (asking price: 525,000 euros). Ezendam: “A client of mine who is currently looking for a home has a budget of around 365,000 euros. Due to the increased interest rate, he has 10,000 euros less to spend on bidding or overbidding. That of course does not increase the chances of such a person.”
