Will it escalate or negotiate? American President Donald Trump is keeping all options open, it is said, now that he is sending reinforcements to the Gulf and anticipating peace talks with Iran. In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually closed. Tehran has often threatened it and, now that it feels existentially threatened, is putting its money where its mouth is.
The few LNG tankers from Qatar now arriving in European ports are the last; they left before the war started. Until this month, a fifth of all the world’s oil and gas passed through Hormuz, plus crucial raw materials for fertilizer. The goal is to restore maritime traffic “as quickly as we can,” the White House said. An attempt to enforce this militarily is conceivable, but risky. Five questions.
1How does Iran keep the Strait closed?
Despite weeks of bombing, Iran is still able to launch missiles and drones at Gulf states and ships. Drones – the triangular Shahed-136 is the best known – fly low, are small and difficult to detect. In addition, Iran is believed to have laid mines in the Strait. And it can probably still carry out attacks with fast boats, manned or unmanned. The rugged coastline, with coves and caves, offers plenty of hiding places, possibly even for small submarines. A classic case of asymmetrical warfare.
It doesn’t take much, American General Joseph Votel, former commander of the American armed forces unit CentCom, which coordinates operations in the Gulf region, said on Friday. in return for The Wall Street Journal. “They just need something [langs de verdediging] and then they get a lot of fireworks for little money.”
2What options are there?
Jennifer Parker, an Australian marine expert, spoke against science site The Conversation of two phases. The first phase must deprive Iran – through persuasion or force – of the means to attack ships. Phase two should “reassure” Gulf states and shipping companies that the route is safe. According to her, this also requires military commitment; with patrols at sea and in the air and clearing mines.
There are a few scenarios for the first phase that can also be carried out together or one after the other: firstly, occupying part of the Iranian coast, and secondly, having commercial shipping escorted by naval ships. The question is whether the latter is even conceivable under war conditions, as President Trump says.
3What would such an occupation scenario look like?
Two units of US Marines would play a key role in this. The first group around the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli includes about 2,200 Marines and is approaching the area. A second group around the USS Boxer is still on its way for a few weeks.
For example, with their own helicopters, landing ships and amphibious vehicles, they can occupy Iranian islands in the Strait, such as Larak, Hormuz and the larger Queshm.
A good escort can deter and respond and reduce risks for ships in narrow waters
Airborne troops can also play a role. Units of the 82nd Division – about 3,000 soldiers – are brought to the Gulf region. In addition to a parachute, they also have helicopters.
Those islands are heavily defended. And to reach them, American landing ships must first pass through the Strait of Hormuz. And the question is whether such an operation can prevent drone attacks. The Shahed has a range of 1,500 kilometers and can also be launched from far inland.
4What role does Kharg Island play?
President Trump has suggested he could take Kharg Island, which with its terminals and storage tanks is the main ‘tap’ for Iranian crude oil. Although Kharg is located seven hundred kilometers west of Hormuz, an occupation could prompt Iran to open the Strait. “In a month we can take Kharg and then we will have them by the balls for negotiations,” quoted news site Axios last week, an anonymous source at the White House.
5What does the escort scenario look like?
In the Gulf it is déjà vu. During the last two years of the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), US Navy ships escorted tankers to and from Kuwait, Iraq’s (then) ally. After an American frigate struck an Iranian mine, the US sank Iranian naval vessels before de-escalating the matter.
Trump has asked NATO countries, South Korea, Japan and even China to send naval vessels for “convoy protection” in the Gulf. On Friday, the United Arab Emirates – which has a small but modern navy – joined the idea such a mutinational ‘Hormuz Security Force’.
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Although NATO chief Mark Rutte insists that European NATO countries will eventually agree to thisthey continue to hold the boat back, reported the Financial Times. For the time being, they only see a role for their ships in a cooler second phase after the ‘hot’ one.
Naval escorts are a classic tool that never offered complete protection, and certainly doesn’t anymore, argues British analyst Richard Gough.
“A good escort can deter and respond and reduce risks for ships in narrow waters,” he writes in the newsletter Future Navy. “But even in ideal circumstances, escort operations depend on timing, detection capacity and some luck. The opponent only needs to be successful once, the defending party continuously.”
And that threat is no longer unambiguous, but can be disguised as a civilian ship, or therefore take the form of a drone, kamikaze boat or submarine mine. The hard truth, says Gough, is that “a handful of ‘grey hulls’ alone can never protect a global trading system.”
Satellite photo of Kharg Island.
AFP
