Citigroup upgrades Netflix shares to “buy” after the failed Warner deal. Analyst Jason Bazinet expects a price increase by autumn 2026.
• Citi analyst Jason Bazinet upgraded Netflix to Buy with a $115 price target
• Bazinet expects Netflix to increase prices by October 2026
• Netflix currently charges between $7.99 and $24.99 per month in the US
Citi expects price increase by fourth quarter of 2026
Citi analyst Jason Bazinet sees Netflix in a much better position for a price increase after the end of the Warner Bros. takeover attempt. In a note to clients reported by MarketWatch on March 18, 2026, Bazinet wrote that many investors considered a price increase unlikely during the regulatory review surrounding the acquisition. After the deal fell through, he no longer sees any reason that would prevent Netflix from doing so.
Given Netflix’s previous pricing patterns, which last raised subscription prices in January 2025, Bazinet believes a further increase by October 2026 is realistic. According to the analyst, an increase in average revenue per user of 5 percent could result in a share price increase of up to 6 percent. Netflix currently charges between $7.99 per month in the US for the cheapest ad-supported plan and $24.99 for the most comprehensive ad-free package. Bazinet upgraded the stock to Buy and assigned a price target of $115.
Why the failed Warner deal relieves Netflix
In early December 2025, Netflix announced an agreement to purchase the studio and streaming divisions of Warner Bros. Discovery for $82.7 billion. However, in an official statement dated February 26, 2026, Netflix stated that it would not improve the offer after the board of directors of Warner Bros. Discovery deemed Paramount Skydance’s bid superior. Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters emphasized in the statement that the transaction was always a proposition that would have been attractive at the right price, but not a must-have at any price.
According to the Netflix announcement, the company plans to invest around $20 billion in films and series this year and to restart the share buyback program. Bazinet sees this as another positive development for the share: Without the financial burden of a takeover, Netflix now has greater scope for higher cash holdings and buybacks. In addition, the company should be able to increase its operating margin forecast as the potential burdens from the merger will no longer apply.
A downer in the advertising business
Despite the positive overall assessment, Bazinet was more cautious about Netflix’s advertising business. The current analyst consensus, according to MarketWatch, is that Netflix will generate around $11 billion in advertising revenue annually by 2030, up from a previous estimate of $12 billion in 2025. However, Bazinet believes these forecasts are too optimistic and is more likely to expect around $9 billion by 2030.
Netflix says it has around 325 million subscribers worldwide. According to MarketWatch, Bazinet noted that although Netflix is only the third most expensive streaming service when it comes to ad-free offerings, given the depth of the content offering and the high level of viewer loyalty, there is scope to take the lead without having to fear significant loss of subscribers.
Dominik Maier, editorial team at finanzen.net
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