(New: more details, current developments)
STUTTGART/BERLIN (dpa-AFX) – In the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, the Greens are just ahead of the CDU – after a rapid race to catch up in the polls in recent weeks. This emerges from projections by ARD and ZDF. Green Party lead candidate Cem Özdemir could follow in the footsteps of Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Greens). For months, the CDU and state leader Manuel Hagel had clearly led in surveys, but in the end the Greens managed to turn things around.
The AfD doubles its result and ends up in third place. The SPD is falling to a historic low in state elections nationwide – top candidate Andreas Stoch drew the consequences and announced his withdrawal as state and parliamentary group leader. The FDP and the Left fail at the five percent hurdle.
According to the projections, the Greens come to 31.3 to 31.4 percent (2021: 32.6 percent), the CDU is just behind at 29.7 to 29.9 percent (24.1). The AfD received 18.1 to 18.2 percent (9.7). The SPD follows far behind with 5.4 to 5.5 percent (11.0). The FDP got 4.3 to 4.4 percent (10.5), the Left also got 4.3 to 4.4 percent (3.6).
According to projections, the Greens will receive 44 to 57 seats in the state parliament (2021: 58), the CDU 42 to 54 (42). The AfD has 26 to 33 mandates (17), the SPD has 8 to 10 (19).
Özdemir offers CDU cooperation
On the evening of the election, Özdemir called on the Christian Democrats to work together again and offered them a “partnership on equal terms”. “The benchmark should be the last ten years and the successes we have achieved.” Hagel said: “If this election result turns out to be true, then the government’s mandate lies with the Greens.” He also categorically ruled out being elected prime minister with votes from the AfD.
Prime Minister Kretschmann of the Greens did not run again after 15 years. The 77-year-old, the first and only head of government for the Green Party in Germany, is retiring. He has governed with the CDU since 2016, and before that with the SPD.
Federal Green Party leader Felix Banaszak also called the strong Green Party result an announcement to Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) and his political “disorientation”. Co-chair Franziska Brantner spoke of a “sensational result”.
The 60-year-old Green Party candidate Özdemir has been in politics for decades – he sat in the Bundestag and the European Parliament, was the Green Party leader and also a federal minister. During the election campaign, Özdemir, who calls himself an “Anatolian Swabian”, distanced himself from the federal Greens and gave himself a more conservative profile.
Hagel raved about a student’s “fawn eyes.”
The 37-year-old trained banker Hagel has been the CDU parliamentary group leader in the state parliament since 2021. During the election campaign, the devout Catholic and hunter was criticized for a video: In the eight-year-old clip, he raves about the “fawn eyes” of an underage student.
SPD top candidate Stoch also stepped into a “fat bowl,” as he himself said: In a SWR portrait, it can be seen that after a visit to a Tafel store, of all places, he apparently told his driver to buy pie in neighboring France. Even though the purchase never happened, Stoch expressed his regret.
“Totally bitter evening” for the SPD
The historically poor SPD result in the southwest also shocked the federal SPD, where party leader Lars Klingbeil and his coalition partners CDU and CSU have important reforms in the pension and health system ahead of them.
Klingbeil was deeply disappointed by the poor performance. “This is a totally bitter evening,” he said on ZDF. It was just a question of: Cem Özdemir or Manuel Hagel? In the end, that also cost the SPD votes.
AfD: Also a people’s party in Baden-Württemberg
The AfD with its top candidate Markus Frohnmaier is observed by the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected right-wing extremist case; None of the other parties want to form a coalition with the AfD. AfD federal leader Tino Chrupalla said on ZDF that his party was the winner of the evening. “We are now a people’s party in Baden-Württemberg too.”
The FDP, which has deep roots in the southwest, entered the race with top candidate Hans-Ulrich Rülke. During the election campaign he spoke of the “mother of all elections” for his party. The fact that they are no longer in the state parliament in Baden-Württemberg will also make a comeback in the federal government more difficult. But FDP leader Christian Dürr still sees opportunities: After the last federal election, we “started from scratch”. It’s about a marathon and not a sprint.
The Left ran with three young women as the top trio, thus setting a counterpoint to the other parties. They focused on high rents and the gap between rich and poor.
For the first time, 16 and 17 year olds were allowed to vote
According to projections, voter turnout is 70.2 to 70.5 percent (2021: 63.8). A good 7.7 million eligible voters were able to cast their votes – more than ever before.
For the first time, new voting rights came into effect; 16 and 17 year olds were also allowed to vote. In addition, for the first time citizens had two votes, as in the federal election. The second vote decides on the balance of power in the state parliament, the first vote decides on the direct candidate in the constituency.
Start of the “super election year 2026”
The election is the first of five state elections in the “super election year 2026” and the first under the black-red federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU). The CDU and SPD are debating important reforms. The election results are therefore important for the mood.
The next election is on March 22nd in Rhineland-Palatinate. The SPD, which has been in power for 34 years, is threatened with losing the position of prime minister. Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will vote in September – here the AfD gets around 40 percent in surveys./kli/DP/mis
