Tesla is increasingly focusing its strategy on the humanoid robot Optimus. While Elon Musk formulates big production goals, GLJ Research warns against excessive expectations.
• Change in strategy towards AI
• Optimus should reach series production
• Analysts with mixed opinions
After long being known primarily for its electric vehicles, Tesla may be facing a strategic turning point. Tesla boss Elon Musk has been consistently driving forward the transformation into an AI-driven technology and services group for several years.
Tesla’s focus on Optimus
At the center of Musk’s future strategy is the humanoid robot Optimus. According to the Tesla boss, the system could reach a level of performance comparable to that of a human as early as this year – a prospect that is attracting attention in the markets.
Apparently, Musk is giving the project a high priority: in Fremont, California, production of Models S and During the conference call on the fourth quarter of 2025, Musk outlined an ambitious goal: in the long term, up to one million Optimus units per year will be manufactured in Fremont.
At the same time, he put expectations into perspective and made it clear that the project is still in the development phase. However, he described the progress of the third generation as much more human-like. The robot is able to learn from people and take on tasks. According to him, series production could start “towards the end of this year”.
GLJ Research maintains a sell recommendation for Tesla
In February, GLJ Research reiterated its sell recommendation for the US electric car maker Tesla. The company left its price target unchanged at $25.28. This is far below Tesla’s current price. Tesla shares last closed on the US tech exchange NASDAQ at $405.94 (as of March 4, 2026).
GLJ Research’s bearish stance is partly due to Tesla’s Optimus robot project. The company considered its potential commercial viability and reviewed independent technical assessments, competitive data and Tesla’s own disclosures, according to Investing.com. GLJ Research found that even in a scenario where Optimus becomes commercially viable, “the probability-weighted value is only a fraction of what the market is currently pricing into the stock,” Investing.com reports. The company estimates the probability of the market-priced outcome in the robotics sector at 15 to 20 percent and said the current market valuation is inconsistent with the actual probability of success.
More analyst ratings
Overall, analyst ratings for Tesla shares show a mixed picture. In the last three months, 30 Wall Street analysts have issued a 12-month price target for Tesla, according to TipRanks. Of these 30 analysts, twelve recommend buying the stock, eleven recommend holding the stock and seven analysts have given a sell recommendation. The average price target is $399.25, with a high forecast of $600.00 and low forecast of $25.28 from GLJ Research. The average price target corresponds to a change of -1.65 percent compared to the last price of $405.94 (as of: closing price on March 4, 2026).
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