Because of the Iran war, German industry does not currently see any immediate threat to the economic recovery in Germany. Wolfgang Niedermark, member of the executive board of the Federation of German Industries (BDI), told the German Press Agency that the war had already noticeably increased world market prices for crude oil and gas. “This can also have the effect of increasing prices in Germany, but is unlikely to endanger the economic recovery in Germany and Europe.” The BDI does not expect any immediate bottlenecks in oil and gas supplies in Europe.
After years of economic weakness, slight economic growth is expected in Germany this year. From the point of view of Federal Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU), there are no short-term supply problems in Germany. The energy supply is broadly diversified.
Iran has restricted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following US and Israeli attacks. Around a fifth of global oil shipments pass through the strait in the oil-rich Persian Gulf region every day.
“A long-term closure or impairment of this sea route would have a significant impact on supply chains and prices,” said Niedermark. Natural gas and electricity are central to German industry. Oil plays a comparatively smaller role as a production factor and is primarily relevant as a fuel precursor. “The vulnerability therefore lies primarily in energy and transport costs, not in physical availability.”
