It is a recurring meme on Turkish social media: a world map with unstable neighboring countries, such as Syria and Iraq in the south and Ukraine across the Black Sea, with Turkey in between as a beacon of calm. Iran has also been on that map since Saturday. Moreover, as Iran launches counter-attacks on neighboring Arab countries where US military bases are located, Turkey’s feared scenario of a broader regional conflict is becoming tangible. On Wednesday, an Iranian ballistic missile flying towards Turkey via Iraq and Syria was shot down by NATO’s anti-aircraft defense system.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke by telephone with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday. He expressed concerns about the firing of ballistic missiles into Turkish airspace and stressed that steps leading to further escalation should be avoided.
This call for restraint is in line with the broader tone that the Turkish government is taking. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last weekend called the military actions of the US and Israel a violation of international law and an unlawful attack on sovereignty. At the same time, he also expressed concern about Iranian retaliation, calling it unacceptable.
Many Middle Eastern countries have essentially outsourced their Iran policy to the US. Turkey doesn’t do that
Güney Yildiz, geopolitical advisor at Anthesis Group in London, suspects that Iran will act with restraint towards Turkey. “Turkey and Iran have shared the same borders for almost four hundred years. This has created a deep-rooted security structure that extends beyond temporary political tensions,” Yildiz said by telephone. “In addition, there has been intensive contact between the Turkish intelligence services and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in recent years. You cannot simply end those kinds of relationships.”
Turkey restricts the use of US bases on its territory and allows their use under strict conditions. In this way, the Turkish government maintains control over its own foreign policy. This sets the country apart from many Gulf states. In countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, American bases operate with fewer restrictions. Yildiz: “Many countries in the Middle East have in fact outsourced their Iran policy to the US. Turkey does not do that and is trying to chart its own strategic course.”
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Part of that strategy is for Turkey to position itself as a mediator between the US and Iran. Together with several Gulf states, the country has intensively tried to prevent further escalation in recent weeks. Erdogan repeatedly emphasized that he does not want war in the region.
Economic interests also play a role in this. Economic ties between Turkey and Iran are strong. Turkey is one of the most important markets for Iranian export products. The countries are also closely intertwined in the field of energy. About 15 percent of Turkish natural gas comes via Iran. The foundation for this was laid in a 1996 agreement, after which a pipeline between the two countries was put into use in 2001. The contract expires around July, and Turkey is therefore very concerned that there is a stable government in Tehran with which gas supplies can be renegotiated.
Limit of 560 kilometers
Yet a strong Iran in the region does not seem entirely to Turkey’s advantage. In this way, Turkey filled the gap left by Iran after the loss of Iranian allies in the region, such as former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. “For Turkey, a weaker Iran actually gave more room to expand diplomatic and economic influence in the region. But an Iran that collapses or fragments is a completely different scenario,” says Yildiz. According to the analyst, this could put pressure on current relations.
Turkey and Iran share a border of about 560 kilometers. There are three border crossings where Turks and Iranians can travel back and forth visa-free. During the Twelve Day War between Israel and Iran last June, long lines formed at the border of Iranians trying to leave Iran.
Although movements do not seem busier than normal for the time being, Turkey increased security measures in the border area to the highest level as a precaution. A repeat of the refugee crisis like that at the Syrian border in 2015 – when Turkey took in around 3.6 million Syrian refugees at the height of the Syrian civil war – would not go down well in Turkey. A new influx of Iranian refugees could further increase tensions in Turkish society.
Kurdish fighting groups
At the same time, Turkey is also concerned about the position of Kurdish groups in the border region. According to the American news channel CNN, several sources report that the American intelligence service CIA is working on a plan to arm Kurdish fighting groups in an attempt to spark a popular uprising in Iran. President Donald Trump is said to have called Iraqi Kurdish leaders on Sunday to discuss the US military operation in Iran and how the US and the Kurds could work together.
The Turkish government has been conducting peace negotiations with the militant Kurdish movement PKK since last year. Both want to put an end to the battle that has been going on for about forty years. Yildiz: “Kurdish groups have already acquired a certain position in Syria, while an autonomous Kurdish region has existed in Iraq for some time. If a rift also occurs in Iran, it could create a new and difficult to control balance for Turkey.”
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