Countless mineral resources are probably hidden beneath the vast ice at the South Pole. It is also untouched: Antarctica is the only continent left never commercial mining has taken place. Will this remain the case in the future? That question is central one recently published study in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change.
More than 99.4 percent of the Antarctic ground is still covered with ice, often several kilometers thick. Due to climate change, that ice will continue to melt in the coming centuries, exposing large parts of the rocky subsurface. That could, in theory, open the door to mining for the continent’s rich mineral resources, such as gold, copper and cobalt.
Currently prohibited an international treaty any form of mining in Antarctica. This was agreed to protect the vulnerable ecosystem and to prevent geopolitical unrest. But the treaty also stipulates that the parties involved can reconsider this ban in 2048. The international research group behind the recent study expects that the “issue” of mineral resources will then “come up with new force” because of the melting ice.
In the next 275 years, up to 120,000 square kilometers of “new soil” could come to the surface, an area three times the size of the Netherlands, the study shows. The area could also be smaller, depending on the climate scenario used. In the very lowest scenario it is only 150 square kilometers.
Supercontinent Pangea
The researchers largely determine the size of the natural reserves in Antarctica from the geological past. Antarctica, like the other six continents, was formed because the former supercontinent Pangea slowly broke apart over the past two hundred million years. The pieces that were adjacent to Antarctica are now located in South America, Africa, India and Australia. These areas are all rich in rare minerals and this will be no different in Antarctica, geologists expect.
For example, gold found in Antarctic Victorialand shows similarities with known gold deposits in southeastern Australia. The researchers also expect large quantities of copper in an Antarctic area that used to be an extension of the South American Andes Mountains. Over the next 275 years, melting ice there would release between 11 and 24 million tons of the valuable metal.
According to the study, the Antarctic soil is not only emerging due to retreating ice, but also due to falling sea levels. That seems illogical: worldwide, melting ice actually causes rising water. But things are different around Antarctica.
The enormous ice mass there exerts gravity on the surrounding ocean, pulling the sea towards it and making the water level around the continent higher than in other places. That effect disappears when large amounts of ice melt. The level will then drop and the current seabed will be partly exposed.
Territorial disputes
By far the most land is released on the Antarctic Peninsula, the study further shows. Three different countries have been claiming that area for decades: Chile, Argentina and the United Kingdom. In 1959 they frozen their territorial disputes as part of the Antarctic Treaty, which now includes almost fifty countries. It is the same treaty that today bans mining in Antarctica.
The question is whether it will remain that way. “Geopolitical tensions are likely to increase as more land emerges,” the researchers write, “particularly in areas where the territorial claims of Argentina, Chile and the United Kingdom overlap.” In the long run, this could also ‘destabilize’ the entire Antarctic Treaty.
Geologist Peter Bijl of Utrecht University is less concerned about the Antarctic Treaty, he says over the telephone from a research ship off the coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. There, in international company, he is investigating the influence of sea temperatures on the Antarctic ice.
“That is my only criticism of this research,” says Bijl. “The Antarctic Treaty is rock solid. There is no indication that any country will withdraw from it.” According to him, the situation in Antarctica is different from Greenland. Last year, that Danish territory was suddenly confronted with threatening language from the American government, partly because of the minerals located under the ice. “Greenland and the Arctic have no such treaty.”
Bijl emphasizes that during the reconsideration in 2048, only part of the Antarctic Treaty is up for discussion, namely the part that deals with environmental protection. He expects that the rest of the treaty will provide sufficient protection against commercial activities, in particular the obligation to make all obtained data publicly available. “This condition also stopped exploration for oil and gas in the 1970s, because oil companies did not want to release their data.”
This does not alter the fact that mineral extraction in Antarctica could be “very profitable”, says Bijl. “It is here on the surface and it has not been weathered by rain or the atmosphere. It is literally there for the taking, on the coast.”
It is of course “a long way from everything,” Bijl acknowledges. “But there are now also research stations here. In the summer there are a few thousand researchers here, with boats and helicopters and whatever they need. If all that is possible, then mining here will become profitable quite quickly.” He hopes it doesn’t come to that. “It would represent a colossal environmental risk.”
