An undisputed crown prince is not ready to take over from the man who has led Iran for the past 36 years. Not that the 86-year-old Khamenei, who was killed on Saturday near the Israeli-American, had never taken into account that he might fall away, but – unlike his predecessor Ruhollah Khomeiny – he had not, as far as is known, already indicated who should succeed him. Since Khamenei also enjoyed less authority than Khomeini at the time, the question is whether his choice would be uncritically accepted by other high-ranking Iranians.
However, during the attacks by Israel and the US on Iran last summer, when he had to seek safety in a bunker deep underground, Khamenei had, according to Iranian officials, passed on a list of three names of men who could succeed him. It was never known who they were. It was denied that the name of his son, Mojtaba, appeared on this, even though it had often been mentioned before. Mojtaba Khamenei (56) is not a prominent cleric and has also been discredited in many eyes by reports that he has shamelessly enriched himself through corrupt practices.
Analysts are also in the dark as to whether Iran will once again have a conservative cleric as leader, who, like Khamenei, will cling to the increasingly anachronistic strict Islamic regime at all costs. Or perhaps a more secular, more pragmatic leader will emerge who clings even more strongly than Khamenei to the powerful Revolutionary Guards – or even a general of the Revolutionary Guards themselves? However, it is highly unlikely that a secular liberal will take office who would immediately seek rapprochement with the West and turn Iran into a modern democracy.
Ever since the Islamic revolution of 1979, the supreme leader has had enormous power in Iran, in accordance with Khomeini’s wishes. Not only does he appoint the highest judges and commanders of both the regular army and the powerful Revolutionary Guards, he also has the final say on all important decisions in all areas, from economic policy to foreign policy.
Triumvirate seeks new supreme leader
Formally, after the death of the supreme leader, a committee consisting of the president, the head of the judiciary and a senior cleric, considers the succession. On Sunday it was announced that 66-year-old cleric Alireza Arafi will join this triumvirate. The other members are the relatively moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian and the head of the judiciary Gholam-Hussein Mohseni-Ejei.
The candidate they nominate must then be approved by the so-called Meeting of Experts. However, the 88 members of this council are carefully screened for, among other things, their adherence to Islamic rule by the Guardian Council, who in turn have been selected in recent years by Ayatollah Khamenei himself.
The question, however, is whether this procedure will also be followed so strictly in wartime. Especially now that the great helmsman Khamenei is no longer in power, it is vital for the Islamic regime to quickly have a new, powerful leader. “The highest priority is the survival of the state,” Vali Nasr, an Iran expert from Johns Hopkins University, said in a statement last June. The New York Times. And that requires the necessary flexibility. Even in Khamenei’s own case, all rules were not adhered to too strictly in 1989. He was not yet a prominent cleric at the time, but this was provided for by his hasty promotion to ayatollah.
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Partly due to Khamenei’s old age, there has been much speculation in recent years about who would be the most promising candidate. For a while until 2024, that seemed to be Ebrahim Raisi, a stiff conservative cleric who had been put forward as president by Khamenei himself, a post that Khamenei himself had also held for several years. But Raisi, who was never loved by the population, disappeared from the scene due to a fatal helicopter accident.
In recent months, the name of Ali Larijani (67), a former speaker of parliament who also has excellent contacts in the Revolutionary Guards, where he also worked for some time as a commander, has been appearing more and more often. Analysts point out that Larijani, known as a pragmatist, has been repeatedly sent on highly sensitive missions by Khamenei in recent years, including abroad. For example, he repeatedly traveled to Oman to discuss Iran’s efforts on behalf of Khamenei in the nuclear talks with the US. Oman mediates in this.
Last January, when Khamenei had bloody suppression of protest demonstrations, Larijani is said to have again assisted the supreme leader as a close advisor. The US has therefore put him on its sanctions list. Larijani comes from a family of high-ranking clerics and has also repeatedly led Friday prayers in Tehran as a replacement for Khamenei. He also worked as a professor of philosophy. His specialty, reports The Economistis remarkably the German Enlightenment philosopher Immanuel Kant.
A possible rival is parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, three years his junior, a pilot and former commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s air force. He was also mayor of Tehran for many years. He is considered conservative but also relatively pragmatic. However, Ghalibaf has no serious qualifications as a cleric. Also, just like Mojtaba Khamenei, there is more than a hint of corruption surrounding him. His son reportedly left for Canada with a lot of money.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (right) is seen as a possible rival to Khamenei’s confidante Ali Larijani.
PHOTO ANP/EPA
Former president Hassan Rohani, who has a background as a cleric, is sometimes also mentioned. However, in the eyes of many conservatives, he is considered too liberal. Rouhani was one of the architects of the nuclear treaty with the US, which was unilaterally terminated by Trump in 2018.
In the event that the Assembly of Experts would rather see a par excellence cleric at the head of Iran again, Alireza Arafi himself could also be considered. He is part of both the Council of Experts and the Council of Guardians and leads Friday prayers in the Shiite holy city of Qom, where Ayatollah Khomeini also stayed for many years. He also worked closely with Khamenei. But it would be a big gamble for the regime to put such a relatively unknown cleric without much political experience at the head of the increasingly shaky Islamic government.
