“Iran, thanks to the Shah’s great leadership, is an island of stability in one of the most troubled regions in the world.” With this one words In 1977, then US President Jimmy Carter addressed the Iranian Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Carter concluded his speech by saying: “There is no other country on earth with which we work more closely on shared military security. There is no other country with which we consult more intensively on regional issues that affect us both.”
It is now almost fifty years later, some are hoping for the return from exile of the Shah’s son and the Americans have attacked Iran for the second time in twelve months, with the support of the Israelis.
How was this point reached? There are countless moments, such as the desire of the US and Israel to overthrow the Iranian regime after the acclaimed Shah was expelled from his country in 1979. To indicate the current escalation, 2018 is a clearer tipping point. That year, during his first term, Trump pulled the plug on the nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had been concluded with President Barack Obama in 2015. An international agreement was reached in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Trump unilaterally withdrew from this because the agreement was unsound as far as he was concerned, and he imposed new sanctions on the country.
Iran continued to adhere to the agreements after this, in the hope that Europe would maintain the economic benefits of the deal. When that did not happen, the country started enriching more uranium. According to the reports of the UN atomic society, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), in 2020 Iran further expanded its uranium stockpile and deployed more advanced centrifuges, exceeding the limits of the JCPOA.
After Trump, President Joe Biden’s negotiations with the Iranian regime came to nothing. In his second term, Trump wanted to come back to the table to make a deal, and in addition to nuclear agreements, the US also wants Iran to limit its ballistic missiles in number and range. Armed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis – an alliance also known as the ‘Axis of the Resistance’ – may no longer be supported. These groups have been significantly weakened by Israel, especially after October 7, 2023 and the destruction of Gaza.
‘Help is on the way’
The first military step towards the current escalation took place in June 2025, when Israel carried out large-scale air strikes on military targets, nuclear facilities and the capital Tehran. The reason for this, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon “in a very short time”, something he has been saying for decades. This made the country an existential threat to Israel and the attack was legitimate as far as he was concerned. Another reason would be “freedom” for the Iranian people, and there was hope for regime change in Tehran.
It was the kick-off for a twelve-day war between Israel and Iran, in which Israel received support from the US. Operation Midnight Hammer went into effect and the US bombed three nuclear complexes in Iran. According to Trump, Iran’s nuclear facilities had been “completely destroyed” and the program had been set back decades. This was quickly contradicted by the director of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi. He told the American news channel CBS that Iran could produce enriched uranium again within months. He also thought there was a good chance that stocks of highly enriched uranium had already been secured before the attack.
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On June 23, Trump announced that he had reached a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and that Iran would reconsider cooperation with the IAEA. Israel continued to emphasize that the attack was necessary to stop Iran’s nuclear program, and along with the US, continued to increase pressure on Iran. This also happened in Europe: the EU decided to reimpose sanctions on September 29. Shortly before that, the UN had reintroduced sanctions against Iran.
Last month, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards were also placed on the EU terror list for the repression of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime and the suppression of protests in early January. The number of demonstrators killed is, according to the regime itself, around 3,000. UN experts speak of 12,000 to possibly 30,000 victims.
These protests are now also being used by Trump to allude to regime change. Attempts to do so failed in Iran itself, after demonstrations in 2019 and 2022. When the Iranian rial plummeted at the end of December, shopkeepers and market traders first closed in protest. That protest again resulted in broad-based demonstrations against the current regime.
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On January 13, Trump posted on social media that “help was on the way.” It is difficult to gauge such promises, because Trump often makes these kinds of statements without consulting Congress. In that respect, his foreign policy is consistent, because he did not do the same in the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro, in the bombing of alleged drug boats or in the boarding of several oil tankers.
Iran and the US were still discussing limits on nuclear activities on Thursday. At the same time, the Americans have been building an ‘armada’ in the waters around Iran since the end of January. Saturday morning’s attack had been seen as inevitable for weeks.
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