Schiphol is currently allowed to operate 478,000 flights. The researchers argue that fewer flights will benefit ‘broad prosperity’. This includes not only accessibility and economy, but also employment, health, living environment and climate.
Halving the number of flights would mean that Schiphol’s so-called hub function would disappear. But that would not be a threat to the Dutch economy. “That hub status comes with a very high share of transfer passengers, but they do not yield much for the Dutch economy,” explains researcher Martijn Blom.
Getting started in other sectors
The fear is often that shrinkage will affect accessibility and therefore harm the business climate, but this research states that international companies are not dropping out.
Some of the people who currently work in aviation will logically have to say goodbye to their jobs if they shrink. According to the researchers, this unemployment will be temporary in nature thanks to the tight labor market. Blom: “There are many sectors where there are shortages. For example, to make the energy transition possible.”
Dutch holidaymakers will have to settle for fewer destinations and will therefore have to transfer more often. In the scenario of 250,000 flights, one in five destinations would have to be canceled.
Beneficial effects on the living environment
“You have to look at this from a broader perspective,” Blom responds. “This can simultaneously generate beneficial effects for the living environment, such as less noise pollution, but also positive effects for housing construction.”
Local residents who are part of the MRS hope that the conclusions from the study will shake up politics. “It is always said that shrinkage is bad for the economy, but this research shows once and for all that this is not true,” says Stefan Molenaar, who himself experiences a lot of inconvenience.
Schiphol response
In a response to NH Nieuws, Schiphol said it disputes the conclusions from the study, because not all consequences of shrinkage had been taken into account. They point to possible retaliation from, for example, American airlines if the Netherlands reduces the number of flights. “It is very questionable whether Schiphol can fulfill its role as an international hub for the Netherlands with 375,000 flights.”
Schiphol also points to studies that show that aviation does make an important contribution to the broad prosperity of the Netherlands. Like it Wennink reporta study into the future earning capacity of the Netherlands that the outgoing Schoof cabinet commissioned last year.
Schiphol also points out that researchers from the same CE Delft in a 2024 report conclude that ‘environmental and noise measures, including a higher air passenger tax, are much better for broad prosperity than shrinking Schiphol.’
