Gold and silver have recently kept investors on tenterhooks: a strong rally was followed by heavy losses, which have so far only been partially contained. Analysts are already talking about a new market regime.
• There has been some heavy volatility in gold and silver in the last few weeks
• Heraeus sees a new “high volatility regime” for precious metals
• Times as a safe haven over?
According to analysts at precious metals trader Heraeus, silver and gold are currently in a “high volatility regime” in which the traditional roles of gold and silver as relative stability anchors – for example in times of economic uncertainty – are no longer effective, according to “Kitco News”. Investors would therefore have to adapt to new rules when dealing with precious metals.
From a safe haven to a highly volatile investment
Traditionally, gold and – to a somewhat lesser extent – silver are considered “safe havens”, i.e. assets that offer relatively stable refuge in times of crisis. But in view of the recent price capriciousness, this status is in danger, according to the Heraeus experts. According to their assessment, gold in particular has changed from a safe haven to a speculative asset, according to “Kitco News”. “The seeds for the price decline were sown in the previous rally, which was exceptional for a supposedly low-risk, safe asset,” Heraeus analysts’ statements in this regard are quoted by the news site. Given the sharp drop in the price of the yellow metal at the end of January, “leveraged positions were probably also liquidated, stop-loss orders were triggered and margin requirements were increased,” which would indicate increasing speculation. According to Heraeus, this is also supported by data from the World Gold Council, which shows that demand for gold has recently been driven primarily by “significantly higher investment demand”, while demand from the jewelry sector and industry has decreased.
The experts have not yet given the all-clear for the future either: “It will most likely take months and not weeks […]”to reduce the excessive euphoria that has driven the gold price so high so quickly,” says Heraeus, according to “Kitco News”. This means that the gold price will probably no longer be suitable as a safe haven for the time being and new records will remain a thing of the future.
Experts: Silver firmly established in highly volatile territory
According to “Kitco News”, Heraeus analysts also expect strong fluctuations in silver. “The gold-silver ratio has risen to 64 following silver’s more significant price declines. And just as silver outperformed gold on the way up, it is now falling even faster on the way down,” the news site quotes. To put it into perspective: at the end of January the gold-silver ratio was still less than 50 and, according to Forbes, had fallen below this threshold for the first time since 2012. The average is around 70. According to Forbes, it was also expected that the indicator would approach this value again – either through a stronger increase in the price of gold while silver remained fairly constant, or through a fall in the price of silver while the price of gold remained the same. The latest developments now point to the latter – and could continue.
According to “Kitco News”, Heraeus attributes the recent strong fluctuations in the price of silver to, among other things, capital inflows and outflows in ETFs and trading in China. In any case, silver is more susceptible to fluctuations than gold because it is also heavily dependent on industrial demand. Adjustments to demand from this area – for example due to changing economic prospects – would then increase the already existing volatility. As early as December 2025, Heraeus experts had warned that the silver price would continue to be volatile as part of their precious metal forecasts for 2026.
Investors face new challenges
For investors, the new “high volatility” market regime for gold and silver announced by Heraeus now represents a challenge and reflects a fundamental change in the perception and dynamics of these raw materials: away from the simple hedging function towards an environment in which external drivers as well as speculative impulses and structural factors determine the price dynamics. The old status of precious metals as safe havens may therefore only be valid to a limited extent; quick profits could be just as possible in the future as quick losses. Risk management and liquidity planning are therefore becoming increasingly important.
Editorial team finanzen.net
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