The price plunge to around $60,000 and the subsequent recapture of the 70,000 mark catapulted Bitcoin from “panic mode” back into a technical recovery phase within a few hours. According to market reports, the dip marked the lowest level since October 2024 before the countermove began.
It is precisely this dynamic that is now driving the debate: Was this already the rapid bottom – or just an intermediate spurt in a continuing downward cycle?
Bitcoin analysis: rebound after capitulation – what comes next?
The strong rebound came after Bitcoin fell to just over $60,000 intraday, reflecting one of the sharpest pullbacks since the 2022 FTX shock. As a result, BTC rose above $70,000 again on the same day; Reuters speaks of the largest daily movement since March 2023. At the same time, other risk assets, especially tech stocks, also recovered, which strengthened the “risk-on” impulse in the crypto market.
Despite the recovery, signals remain mixed. Bitcoin is still in the red for the week and it shows that investors are taking a more defensive approach using options. This speaks less of an all-clear than of an environment in which liquidations and technical brands have a disproportionate impact in the short term. The classification of many observers therefore remains cautious: A strong countermovement can mark a bottom – but it can also be a typical “countertrend rally” move in a weakened trend.
Two experts, two models: When will the Bitcoin bottom come?
Benjamin Cowen argues with the classic four-year cycle and places the most likely low in October 2026, with a possible earlier scenario in May – depending on whether recovery rallies are short or drag on for weeks. He also points out that four-year patterns are not exclusive to Bitcoin and can occur in other markets as well.
In contrast, there is the “drawdown” narrative from @gem_detecter: Historical Bitcoin bear markets have been less brutal from cycle to cycle (2011 to 2022), from which he roughly derives a potential next peak-to-trough range of around 70% – which would mathematically be close to $38,000 at a reference high of around $126,000. The model seems intuitive, but remains highly simplistic: It assumes that a trend in the weakening of drawdowns continues reliably, although macro regimes, market structure (ETFs, derivatives, liquidity) and shock events can significantly change the course.
Bitcoin bear market drawdowns:
2011: -93%
2015: -86%
2018: -84%
2022: -77%Clear pattern: ~7% less brutal each cycle.
2026 math: -70% from $126K = $38K bottom.
Good luck buying your dip at $69K, $60K, $50K.
I’ll be waiting at $38K. This is how it always works. pic.twitter.com/MMT17evSEi
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GEM DETECTOR
Bitcoin development: Technological impulses for more demand
Whether the recent price decline actually marks the cyclical low remains controversial among analysts. However, one thing is clear: new demand factors can change market phases more quickly than classic cycle models would suggest. This particularly includes technological developments relating to Bitcoin itself. If the acceptance of Layer 2 solutions increases significantly, this could create additional usage scenarios and thus also strengthen the fundamental demand for BTC. It is precisely in this environment that individual infrastructure projects are currently moving more into focus.
An example of this is Bitcoin Hyper. This is a project focused on a scalable expansion of the Bitcoin blockchain. Technically, the approach is based on integrating the Solana Virtual Machine as an additional execution layer. The goal is to process transactions faster and cheaper and to enable applications that go beyond pure storage of value – such as fast payment processing or data-intensive applications. The project thus addresses a frequently discussed topic in the market: the limited native functionality of the Bitcoin base layer.
Directly to the Bitcoin Hyper Presale
What is particularly striking at the moment is the interest in capital. According to the project, around $31.5 million has already been raised in the current presale. Although such inflows are not considered proof of quality, they do show that infrastructure narratives continue to receive attention despite an uncertain market phase
According to the project, fixed price levels are planned for the current presale, which can quickly result in book profits. The purchase is made via the project website by connecting a compatible wallet and then purchasing the token via swap. Staking currently brings a strong 38 percent APY in the presale.
Directly to the Bitcoin Hyper Presale
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