Acute bubble alarm for Tesla shares: market veteran with a vehement warning to investors

• Massive discrepancy between market value and fundamentals
• Auto business dominates sales but has been shrinking for years
• Future narratives drive the price more strongly than operational performance

George Noble, former director of the Fidelity International fund and founder of two hedge funds, is sounding the alarm. For the experienced market expert, the electric car manufacturer Tesla is much more than just an overvalued company – he sees this as a historical misvaluation that many investors misunderstand. In a conversation with Business Insider, Noble expressed his deep skepticism about the current market euphoria and explained why neither artificial intelligence nor the robotaxi plans will save the company.

Stock decoupled from fundamentals

In Noble’s view, Tesla shares have long since become decoupled from the company’s fundamentals. He points to increasing competition and the fact that Tesla has recorded declining sales figures for the second year in a row in 2025.

Noble made it clear to Business Insider: “I think this is the biggest bubble in the history of the stock market,” said the market expert. “In my opinion, there has never been a stock that has been so far from its fundamental valuation.”

The dictatorship of narratives

Noble puts the fair value of Tesla shares based on current fundamental data at a range between $60 and $140. In his opinion, at the current price level of 397.21 US dollars, the share certificate would be many times too expensive – in the worst case, he even considers a price drop of around 85 percent to be justified (as of: closing price on February 5, 2026).

According to the fund manager, there is a huge gap between the market capitalization of $1.52 trillion (as of February 5, 2026) and actual business performance. This gap is filled by hype, which drives up the share price more than the actual business success. Noble argues that Elon Musk which keeps investors hooked through constantly changing promises: “The product is the stock. Not the cars,” says Noble. “It’s the stories. He’s constantly switching from one story to the next. Years ago it was solar energy, then came the Boring Company. And he promised robotaxis for the next ten years.”

Tesla primarily depends on car sales

Noble finds particularly worrying the widespread view on Wall Street that Tesla is “more than just a car manufacturer.” Despite all the lofty plans for robotaxis and humanoid robots, the majority of revenue still comes from vehicle sales – and this has been declining for two years. “The automotive business accounts for 87 percent of sales, is facing major challenges and will record falling sales for the third year in a row in 2026,” Business Insider quotes from a recent blog post by the expert. “The auto business is worth just $20 per share based on comparative valuations.”

Recent Tesla numbers support Noble’s view

In its latest financial statement release, it becomes clear how much Tesla’s business actually remains dependent on car sales. The company has completed a year with a decline in sales for the first time. Revenues fell by around three percent to $94.8 billion in 2025 due to lower deliveries, with the company recording the second annual decline in deliveries in a row last year. These fell by 8.5 percent to a good 1.636 million vehicles. Tesla reached its previous peak in 2023 with just over 1.8 million cars delivered.

However, CEO Elon Musk hastened to emphasize that the company’s future will lie in self-driving robotaxis and human-like robots. In both areas, however, Tesla is only at the beginning, has so far only been able to celebrate manageable successes and also has strong competition in front of it. With a manageable number of robotaxis – according to Musk, Tesla is currently testing its robotaxi service with around 500 compact SUV model vehicles – Tesla is so far a world away from the ambitious plans for a huge robotaxi fleet.

Nevertheless, the company boss sees the future of his company in this area – and especially in the robot segment. Currently, only Chinese developers are significant competition for Tesla’s robot called Optimus, Musk said in the balance sheet presentation. In order to create capacity for robot production, production of the larger models S and

Editorial team finanzen.net

Selected leveraged products on Tesla

With knock-outs, speculative investors can participate disproportionately in price movements. Simply select the lever you want and we will show you suitable open-end products on Tesla

The leverage must be between 2 and 20

Advertising