The retail industry in Germany is cautious about the year 2026. According to a survey by the German Retail Association (HDE), almost every second company expects sales to be slightly or significantly lower than in 2025 (49 percent). A quarter (23 percent) expect revenues to increase. 29 percent assume that sales will be at the previous year’s level. Almost 600 trading companies were surveyed.
The trade association expects a nominal sales increase of two percent for the industry this year. Adjusted for price increases, this would only correspond to growth of 0.5 percent. According to the HDE survey, the biggest problem remains purchasing reluctance. Because of the tense global political situation, consumers are apparently too insecure to make larger purchases, said HDE Managing Director Stefan Genth. The outlook for online retail is much more optimistic: a price-adjusted sales increase of 3.5 percent is expected here in 2026.
Retail will increase in 2025
German retail did better business in 2025 despite the weak economy. Adjusted for prices, sales rose by 2.7 percent compared to the previous year, according to the Federal Statistical Office. The increase is due, among other things, to the restructuring of a large online retailer, which took into account sales that had not previously been recorded in Germany. The company is said to be Amazon.
In its own calculations, the HDE came to lower values for the past year. Accordingly, the price-adjusted sales increase was 1.5 percent. According to its own statements, the association limits itself to retail in the narrower sense, i.e. excluding motor vehicle dealers, gas stations, fuels and pharmacies.
At the beginning of the year, consumer sentiment improved slightly. This is indicated by both the HDE consumer barometer and the consumer climate index from NIQ and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM).
