Dortmund is really an absolute top team in Germany when it comes to getting a lot of points from very little quality of play. 8 points more than expected point, that’s telling. But no matter how difficult many people find it with this “football”, the points are right and, to be honest, that’s exactly what makes a top team. Sometimes you can take 3 points from 1, 2, 3 or 15 games per season, even though you don’t earn them through play. Guirasy stands for this like no other. To be honest, absolute non-performance today and still two stalls. Congratulations to Dortmund, I think the championship will still be difficult because of the tough February. The duel against Bayern will be quite intense.
No comment on the referee performance today. With some distance to yesterday’s game, especially considering all the games, we have to say that the German refereeing system is completely finished. But what upsets me is that mainstream media, kickers, etc. don’t discuss it as much as it needs to. There are more disastrous refereeing performances than solid ones in professional football. I think a system should be introduced here where poor performance is clearly punished. I’m a tax advisor, if I make a mistake, I’ll be held liable and arbitrators are basically allowed to do their job as they want without any consequences, that has to be the fair performance that everyone is talking about.
Then I noticed that my comment to the referee was much more than “no comment”…
So according to understat, Dortmund is currently at -6.8 xPTS, for comparison Hoffenheim at -10.8, Leverkusen and Leipzig (outside the international places) at the end of last season at around -9 each, Leverkusen in the championship season even at -13.8!
It is currently distributed relatively evenly between defense (xGA 22.6 with 18 goals conceded) and attack (xG 38.1 with 41 goals). For comparison: in the 21/22 season the whole thing was much more unbalanced, there was a complete lack of efficiency in finishing (xG 65.6 with 85! hits, -10.7 xPTS). How significant is this and what does it have to do with the current style of play?
I looked at Fotmob, but I can well imagine that the data differs when it comes to something like this.
I just mean that Dortmund always manages, like a top team, to score points in games where the game might not allow it. We as Bayern didn’t manage to beat Augsburg and HSV, for example. And really, I don’t mean that in a bad way or anything, but do you think today BVB showed in a playful way that the second team plays against the last team? And this isn’t the first time this season.
Of course, I often don’t find this very convincing in terms of gameplay, I think most people agree. I just think that you can’t necessarily tell from the statistical data. Or would you currently say the same about Hoffenheim (who are statistically significantly outperforming in all areas)? Before that from Leverkusen in the last two years to this extent? I didn’t want to say anything more based on these examples.
You can already see it at Hoffenheim, although of course the expectations there are lower. To be honest, you saw it at Leverkusen, especially in the championship season, which doesn’t change the fact that they deservedly became champions. I also said that the quality of a top team is to make a lot out of a little. Dortmund has been one of the most effective teams in the league for years. This is not a criticism, but a compliment. To make this clear, I think BVB would have won the game against Augsburg, which we lost 2-1.
