The Spaniard is sure, on Monday, that he will have at least 12950 points, i.e. a 2650 point margin over Jannik: they could become 13650 in the event of victory, 3350 more than the Italian
The defeat in the semifinals against Novak Djokovic costs Jannik Sinner a lot in terms of ranking. The blue in the ATP ranking which will be updated on Monday 2 February will have 10300 points, 1200 less than at the start of the Melbourne slam. The world number 2 was defending the 2025 (and 2024) title and this is why the elimination in the semi-final is so heavy from a ranking point of view. Also because his rival, Carlos Alcaraz, has already gained 900 points compared to last year, reaching the final (against the quarterfinals of 2025), which added to the 1200 points lost by Jannik, means that the Spaniard’s advantage over the Italian in the ATP ranking has expanded, and not by a little. And it may not be over.
the situation
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Alcaraz is sure, on Monday, that he will have at least 12950 points, a 2650 point margin over Jannik. A nice haul, also considering that from now until the Rome Internationals, Sinner will no longer have anything to defend but only to gain, given the 2025 suspension agreed with Wada for the Clostebol case. However, the Spaniard could emerge with even more points and an even greater advantage over the South Tyrolean. In fact, in the event of triumph at the Australian Open and career slam (he would be the youngest ever to do so), Alcaraz would go for 13650, a good 3350 more than Jannik Sinner. An advantage that is not unbridgeable but certainly important, in view of the chase which will last at least a few months at this point.
docking operation
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After the Australian Open and up to Rome, Alcaraz will have a haul of 2360 points to defend, with victories in the Rotterdam and Monte Carlo tournaments, the final in Barcelona, the semi-final in Indian Wells, the quarter-finals in Doha and the immediate elimination in the second round in Miami. Sinner, as mentioned, has everything to gain but with such a gap it is not easy to imagine when there could be a catch and overtaking. Alcaraz didn’t do very well in the 2025 American trip, which protects him from the immediate attack of Jannik, who if he returns to his level between Doha, Indian Wells and Miami could make a full haul and get significantly closer to the phenomenal Spaniard. If the number two in the world were to really do well in recent months and Alcaraz repeat the not exceptional American swing in 2025, Sinner could focus on the red clay, from Monte Carlo to Paris via Madrid to arrive at the season on grass in front of or in the wake of the Murcian. Difficult? Yes, but not impossible.
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