Tesla delivered fewer vehicles than expected in the fourth quarter of 2025. An analyst continues to see headwinds for the electric car manufacturer and reiterates his cautious assessment.
• HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall confirms his “Reduce” rating on Tesla shares
• Q4 shipments fell approximately 16 percent both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter
• BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s largest electric car manufacturer for the first time
HSBC reiterates sell recommendation with price target of $131
HSBC analyst Michael Tyndall confirmed his “Reduce” rating on Tesla shares with a price target of $131 on January 4, 2026. The assessment was made after the release of delivery figures for the fourth quarter of 2025. As a report from Insider Monkey dated January 6, 2026 shows, the 418,000 vehicles delivered were 3.7 percent below the Visible Alpha consensus and 5.2 percent below the bank’s in-house forecasts.
The figures correspond to a decline of around 16 percent both year-on-year and quarterly. HSBC attributes the weakness to several factors: the expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit in the US on September 30, 2025, weak sales in Europe and declining sales in China. According to Tyndall, even the cheaper standard models could not close the gap.
BYD overtakes Tesla as the world’s largest electric car manufacturer
The quarterly figures mark a historical turning point. As Tesla announced in an official announcement on January 2, 2026, the total number of deliveries for 2025 was around 1.64 million vehicles – a decrease of 8.6 percent compared to the previous year. This means that the group recorded a decline in sales for the second year in a row.
At the same time, Chinese competitor BYD reported sales of 2.26 million pure electric vehicles for 2025 in a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 2, 2026. BYD thus overtook Tesla as the world’s largest manufacturer of electric vehicles for the first time. According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), Tesla registrations in the EU fell by around 39 percent in the first eleven months of 2025, while BYD recorded an increase of 240 percent in the same region.
Energy storage business as a bright spot – analysts remain divided
According to Insider Monkey, HSBC was skeptical about the growth drivers for Tesla given the increasing competition and regionalization of the market. The global market for battery-electric vehicles is becoming more regional, US demand is stagnating and competition is increasing in Europe and China. In Europe, Tesla is expected to continue to lose market share.
The energy storage business provided a positive signal. Tesla sold 14.2 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the fourth quarter of 2025, a new record that beat consensus estimates by 4.7 percent and HSBC forecast by 7.5 percent. Tesla also produced around 434,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, around 16,000 more than were delivered. This suggests that the company expects demand to pick up in the first quarter of 2026. Tesla will report fourth quarter 2025 financial results on January 28, 2026.
D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net
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