What if Venezuela had decided to take revenge after US commandos kidnapped President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in the dead of night on Saturday? And what if Caracas had done that by targeting the Caribbean islands off the Venezuelan coast: Aruba, Curaçao or Bonaire? After all, the islands are part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, which is (still) an ally of the United States.
“If the territorial integrity of the Netherlands is violated, the kingdom is obliged to take action,” says Arjen van Rijn, lawyer and extraordinary professor of constitutional law at the University of Curaçao. This obligation arises from the Statute for the Kingdom of the Netherlands from 1954. It states that defense and foreign relations are Kingdom affairs and that the Netherlands is ultimately responsible for this – also for the Caribbean parts of the kingdom. More than seventy years later, these political relationships are still formally unchanged.
Small scale and the problems that come with it should not be underestimated
Which military or diplomatic counteraction the kingdom would choose in such a situation is not decided in The Hague alone. “The Kingdom Council of Ministers decides on this, in joint consultation,” says Van Rijn, who wrote a standard work on Caribbean constitutional law. The council consists of all Dutch ministers, supplemented by the plenipotentiary ministers of Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten – the CAS islands, which are autonomous countries within the kingdom. Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba (the BES islands) are special Dutch municipalities. They do not have their own representation in the Kingdom Council of Ministers, but their residents do vote for the House of Representatives in the Netherlands.
In practice, thinks Gert Oostindie, emeritus professor of colonial and postcolonial history at Leiden University, one might wonder whether the military presence in such an extreme situation can be more than symbolic. “But from an island perspective, this is a security umbrella.” It has been an important reason for the islands not wanting to become completely independent, unlike the former Dutch colonies. “Small-scale and the problems that come with it should not be underestimated,” says Oostindie – such as protecting one’s own territory. “With this construction, the CAS and BES islands are much better off than islands in the area that may be formally independent, but are therefore extra vulnerable.”
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Refugees
The geopolitical storm that is now raging through the region suddenly exposes this structural and strategic vulnerability in razor sharp relief. The islands are dependent on The Hague for trade, but the consequences are felt locally: in tourism, migration and security. Moreover, the military presence is deterrent, but ultimately limited.
The economic consequences of the tensions were immediately felt. Airlines briefly but massively canceled flights, temporarily cutting off the ABC Islands’ main economic lifeline – tourism. According to consultancy firm Cornerstone Economics, which calculates regional economic impact, damage for that one day alone amounted to $18 million. Even short geopolitical shocks can therefore disrupt the island economy.
Venezuelan fruit sellers at the ‘floating market’ in Willemstad. An estimated 17,000 undocumented Venezuelans reside in Curaçao (approximately 185,000 inhabitants).
Photo RAMON VAN FLYMEN/ANP
In addition, there has been a fear for years of a new flow of refugees from Venezuela. The islands have already seen tens of thousands of Venezuelans arrive by boat since 2017. An estimated 17,000 undocumented Venezuelans reside in Aruba (approximately 110,000 inhabitants); on Curaçao (approximately 185,000 inhabitants) that number is comparable. These islands bear the costs for reception, to the extent that it is provided, themselves, because they are independent countries. The Netherlands is responsible for this for the special municipalities.
Together with a NATO member
The tensions, says lawyer Van Rijn, “put pressure on relations between the islands and the Netherlands, in a good way. If you consider that this system was devised in 1953, it is quite brilliant. It seems to function again and again. Even more so in a joint crisis. Aruba and Curaçao are dots on the map. What I hear is that they are happy that they are working together with a NATO member that still has something to say. That gives peace of mind.”
At the same time, there has always been criticism of the way in which mutual obligations are organized. “The Statute promised equality, but never organized it democratically,” says Oostindie. So there was a Kingdom government, but never a Kingdom parliament. As a result, there is no structural parliamentary control over defense and foreign decisions from the islands, which do apply to them. “In essence, it is a relationship in which the Netherlands is dominant in all respects,” says Oostindie. “Given the differences in scale, that is inevitable, but it hurts.”
According to the emeritus professor, the Netherlands defines its own interests in the islands mainly in terms of problems that need to be solved, in the areas of crime, ethical governance and migration. “In fact, there are no strong mutual interests. The islands are dependent on the Netherlands and the Netherlands is obliged to support the islands. That means interference, otherwise it would not be possible.”
The involvement is now being welcomed with open arms. During a visit by Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans (VVD) to the islands these days, Aruban Prime Minister Mike Eman emphasized that there is now “no immediate danger”. At the same time, Prime Minister Gilmar Pisas of Curaçao warned that the conflict could still escalate. “It shows again: when it comes down to it, the islands desperately need the Netherlands,” says Oostindie. “That will not change for the time being. And the Netherlands should not avoid it either.”
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