Deutsche Bank Research has published its global outlook for 2026. Analysts are expecting a promising but volatile year on the markets.
• Deutsche Bank sees the S&P 500 at 8,000 points at the end of 2026
• Rapid investment in artificial intelligence will continue to dominate market sentiment
• After years of stagnation, Germany is positioned for one of the most significant upswings among the major economies
AI remains the dominant factor
In their World Outlook published on November 24, 2025, Jim Reid and David Folkerts-Landau from Deutsche Bank Research explain that 2026 will be anything but boring. Although trade tariffs remain an issue, rapid investment in artificial intelligence dominates market sentiment. Given technological advances, it’s hard to imagine this not leading to significant productivity gains, analysts said.
However, the bank also warns of fluctuations. Markets could swing back and forth between boom and bust narratives. Investors should prepare for continued volatility. The ultimate winners and losers would depend on a complex interplay of factors, many of which could only become apparent after 2026.
Growth is shifting – USA and Germany on the rise
Global growth in 2026 will be similar in real terms to 2024 and 2025, but the sources of this growth are shifting. The US is expected to regain momentum as trade uncertainties ease, tax cuts support household incomes and growth broadens beyond AI-related investments.
After years of stagnation, Germany is positioned for one of the most significant upswings among the major economies – thanks to newly unleashed fiscal stimulus. The bank’s economists expect GDP growth of 1.5 percent in Germany for 2026, driven by expansionary fiscal policy, higher government spending and a recovery in private consumption.
In Asia, China’s growth will slow to 4.5 percent, while India continues its structural rise and is expected to overtake Japan as the fourth largest economy in 2026.
S&P 500 at 8,000 – the most bullish forecast on Wall Street
Looking at the stock markets, Deutsche Bank names a price target of 8,000 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026. The equity strategies led by Binky Chadha expect the earnings cycle to become broader beyond the mega-cap technology stocks. Earnings per share for the S&P 500 are expected to rise to $320 – an increase of 14 percent.
As the report shows, the bank sees the positioning of discretionary US investors as a source of further upside potential. When it comes to monetary policy, Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut only two more interest rates before a pause. The yield on ten-year US government bonds will be 4.45 percent at the end of 2026. However, the rise of the US dollar is likely to ease.
With a price target of 8,000 points, Deutsche Bank has one of the most optimistic forecasts among the major Wall Street houses. JPMorgan also believes this level is achievable, but only in a bull case scenario with further interest rate cuts. In the base scenario, JPMorgan sees the index at 7,500 points. Morgan Stanley is in between with 7,800 points, Goldman Sachs at 7,600 points.
D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net
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