Oil supply is expected to significantly exceed oil demand in 2026 (see chart 2). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast, the latter is expected to rise by around 860,000 barrels per day, which is similar to 2025. Global demand growth has weakened significantly in recent years because oil demand in China is growing less strongly. The resulting oversupply is likely to lead to an increase in inventories. The fact that commercial oil stocks in the OECD countries have only increased slightly so far is mainly due to China’s stock purchases. In 2025, China imported more crude oil than it needed for domestic use. This has helped to at least partially absorb the visible oversupply in the oil market, as no official data is reported on inventories in China. In addition, the amount of crude oil stored in tankers at sea (floating storage) has increased significantly. At the end of November, it reached a five-year high of 130 million barrels, according to data from analysis firm Vortexa. The question is therefore whether China’s inventory purchases will continue to the same extent in the new year. If not, the oversupply is likely to be reflected in sharper increases in inventories outside China and thus also in the OECD countries, which would weigh on oil prices. The same applies if the oil stored in tankers ends up on land.
