UBS Investment Outlook 2026: AI and technology will shape markets in 2026

• UBS expects the S&P 500 to rise to 7,700 points in 2026
• The technology sector already accounts for 28 percent of the MSCI AC World
• China’s tech industry is one of the best global opportunities, according to UBS

AI investments as a growth engine

In its annual outlook published on November 20, 2025, UBS Global Wealth Management highlights the ongoing momentum around artificial intelligence. The information technology sector now makes up 28 percent of the MSCI AC World Index – driven by AI innovations that would have pushed the markets higher in 2025. In 2026, UBS expects strong investment and accelerated adoption to drive further gains in AI-related stocks.

As shown in a CIO analysis dated December 2, 2025, UBS sees real demand for AI products and services. The token usage at Google serves as evidence: This rose from 480 trillion tokens in May to 1,300 trillion in October – almost tripling within a few months. Over the past 18 months, token usage has increased more than 130-fold. Despite increasing investments in AI infrastructure, the margins of the large technology companies remained stable at around 27 percent. Those too Monetization show progress: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman forecast annual recurring revenue of $100 billion by 2027, compared to an estimated $13 billion this year.

Course objectives and regional opportunities

In the base scenario, UBS forecasts a level of 7,700 points for the S&P 500 by the end of 2026 – an increase of around 15 percent. In the optimistic scenario of a technology boom, the index could even rise to 8,400 points. The development is supported by a favorable economic environment: the bank expects growth of 1.7 percent for the USA Eurozone 1.1 percent and for the Asia-Pacific region around 5 percent.

In addition to the USA, UBS identifies other attractive markets. As the annual outlook shows, China’s technology sector stands out as one of the best global opportunities thanks to strong liquidity, robust earnings growth expected at 37 percent in 2026 and attractive valuations. The bank also rates Japan and Europe as attractive: In Japan, the prospects are based on a recovery in corporate profits and an expansionary government policy. For Europe, the financial house forecasts earnings per share growth of 7 percent for the EURO STOXX 50, with preference given to industrial stocks, technology and utilities.

Diversification across asset classes

UBS recommends investors invest up to 30 percent of a diversified equity portfolio in structural trends such as AI, longevity, and energy and resources. The latter area benefits from increasing electricity demand through AI data centers, which is driving new investments in power generation, energy storage and network infrastructure.

The bank upgrades raw materials to “attractive” as an asset class. Supply constraints, rising demand and geopolitical risks should support energy, metals and agricultural commodities. The financial house sees particular opportunities in copper, aluminum and agricultural raw materials, while gold is considered a valuable portfolio diversifier – with a price target of $4,300 per ounce in the base scenario. When it comes to bonds, UBS recommends high-quality, medium-term securities that should deliver single-digit returns in the mid-range. Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS GWM, summarizes: Navigating structural changes requires investors to adapt their strategies and focus on sectors where capital flows and transformation is occurring.

D. Maier / editorial team finanzen.net

Selected leverage products on Alphabet A (ex Google)

With knock-outs, speculative investors can participate disproportionately in price movements. Simply select the lever you want and we will show you suitable open-end products on Alphabet A (ex Google)

The leverage must be between 2 and 20

Advertising