The tech bull market, driven by NVIDIA and fundamental backlog, could historically last until 2026. However, there is a threat of an “AI bubble”.
• Historical Momentum: Will the Bull Market Sustain?
• NVIDIA as a growth driver
• AI bubble risk
Historical data suggests that the current upward movement is far from over. But while the AI chip manufacturer NVIDIA shines with record-breaking order backlogs, experts warn of possible overheating and the “AI bubble” bursting in the coming years.
A look at history: A bull market with long-term potential
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, pointed out to CNBC that historically, once bull markets reach their third year, they have extended to an average of eight years (based on data since 1950). With the current recovery in the tech sector reaching this three-year milestone, analysts see a high probability of the rally continuing into 2026.
The impressive quarterly reports from the leading technology companies – above all NVIDIA – support the thesis that growth is fundamentally secure. The NASDAQ 100 tech index, for example, has rallied since the end of 2022, already exceeding the median duration of many historical bull markets, underscoring the ongoing momentum.
NVIDIA as a growth engine with order reserves
The AI chip manufacturer NVIDIA is the central driving force of the upswing. Demand for NVIDIA’s data center GPUs continues to outpace supply, with Blackwell sales described as “phenomenal” and cloud GPUs selling out. The company’s strength is reflected in its order backlog of $307 billion for the five quarters ending in 2026 – a total that significantly exceeds sales for the last four quarters. Analysts see this as strong visibility and expect a 58 percent jump in profits for NVIDIA’s fiscal year 2027. A calculation by Motley Fool shows that the stock, with a forward-looking P/E ratio of 23, is also considered to be more attractively valued than the NASDAQ 100 index (P/E ratio 32), which promises further upside potential.
Extreme valuations and competitive pressure are fueling bubble fears around shares of Broadom, NVIDIA & Co.
Despite the fundamental strength, experts warn of possible overheating and the “AI bubble” bursting in the coming years. Historical correlations show that investors often overestimate the adoption and optimization of new technologies. A key indicator is the price-to-sales ratio (P/S): Leading AI stocks like NVIDIA and Broadcom recently exceeded a P/S of 30, a level that in the past has often led to sharp corrections for mega-caps during technology cycles (like before the dot-com bubble).
Added to this is growing competitive pressure: Many of NVIDIA’s top customers are increasingly developing their own, cheaper AI chips for their data centers. These internal solutions could significantly reduce the ongoing shortage of NVIDIA GPUs and thus the company’s exceptional pricing power – which enables high profit margins. If AI market leaders’ lofty growth expectations are not met due to these factors, the historical likelihood of a correction in 2026 could come to fruition.
Editorial team finanzen.net
By the way: Broadcom and other US stocks can even be traded on finanzen.net ZERO until 11 p.m. (without order fees, plus spreads). Open a depot now for free and secure a new customer bonus!
Selected leveraged products on Broadcom
With knock-outs, speculative investors can participate disproportionately in price movements. Simply select the lever you want and we will show you suitable open-end products on Broadcom
The leverage must be between 2 and 20
Advertising