Hype about NVIDIA shares: UBS sees the AI ​​rally as far from over

• UBS expects global AI investments to rise sharply by 2030 despite market uncertainty
• Analysts don’t see a dotcom-like bubble
• According to UBS, NVIDIA remains a driver of the AI ​​boom

Technology stocks have recently experienced strong turbulence – particularly due to concerns about the AI ​​boom that is affecting the international Financial markets that has been driving us for some time could be waning. The fact that industry leader NVIDIA was once again able to beat the already high market expectations with its third-quarter figures brought relief to investors and observers alike. Despite NVIDIA’s strong figures, the experts at the major Swiss bank UBS foresee continued growth for the AI ​​sector and see further tailwind for the AI ​​rally.

UBS: AI rally just beginning

As UBS announced in an AI outlook, the financial house expects that global spending on AI Capex will be around $423 billion in 2025 – and could rise to $571 billion as early as 2026. Even more long-term, the major bank is targeting an annual investment volume of 1.3 trillion US dollars by 2030, which would result in growth of 25 percent per year. What some experts might consider to be an extremely ambitious estimate may still be a cautious outlook for UBS: “Given the fact that investment estimates have been exceeded in recent years and the demand for computing power could continue to rise as AI tasks become more complex, our forecasts could ultimately prove to be conservative,” the experts write in their article.

Don’t worry about Dotcom 2.0

A central pillar of their confidence: The leading technology companies, the so-called megacaps, are financing most of this wave not from debt, but from strong operating cash flows. Although some resort to bonds, UBS sees this primarily as a strategic decision – not as a sign of financial weakness. Unlike the dot-com era, analysts say, today’s AI deals are clearly regulated, more transparent and do not involve risky vendor financing.

Specifically, the experts refer to the AI giant NVIDIA: “Although NVIDIA’s recent partnerships have been compared to supplier financing practices common in the dot-com era, today’s contracts are subject to strict disclosure requirements and improved accounting standards. The volume of supplier financing has also declined significantly. After the recent contract with Anthropic, we estimate that NVIDIA’s recent collaborations represent only 10% of the forecast pre-tax profit for 2026 – significantly below the over 120% observed in the late 1990s,” summarize the UBS analysts.

AI brings income

What also makes UBS optimistic is the increasing Monetization of AI. Although revenues are currently lagging behind investments, the bank is seeing concrete progress: cloud platforms are reporting growing sales, and companies are reporting real time savings in everyday work thanks to AI. For UBS, these productivity gains underline that AI is not just a technology trend – but that there are sustainable economic benefits.

Against this background, UBS warns against dismissing the current weak phase as a bubble. Rather, the experts recommend a differentiated strategy: Investors should not rely on individual high-flyers like NVIDIA, but rather invest broadly in AI topics. This is the only way to benefit in the long term from the upcoming next round of AI penetration.

In short: The hype surrounding NVIDIA may be fluctuating at the moment – but for UBS one thing is certain: the AI ​​rally is far from over. After NVIDIA’s strong numbers, some investors may agree with that assessment.

Editorial team finanzen.net

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