The bad news for the United Provinces began to arrive the week before the election. The surveys, which for a time indicated to the governors that in their territories they could manage to mediate between La Libertad Avanza and Fuerza Patria, began to show them that, once again, there was no room for a third way.
“The famous useful vote,” the advisors explained. “The fear vote,” the governors renamed it. The voter who, for fear of being left out of polarization or to avoid a black Monday in the economy, changed his mind in recent days.
The result was overwhelming: United Provinces lost in five of the six founding provinces. Only Gustavo Valdés was able to give him a victory in Corrientes. The coalition barely garnered 6.95% of the votes nationally. And far from the 20 legislators they thought they were going to put in, they got 7 seats in the Deputies and 1 in the Senate. It was not an auspicious debut, although they still consolidated themselves as a third force and as arbiters of the rift between Peronism and Milei.
Reflections.
The week after the election, the governors dedicated themselves to analyzing why they had not achieved the initial objective. “One could foresee the wave, but not this tsunami,” one of the space’s owners tells NOTICIAS. Nobody read the fantastic electoral performance of the national ruling party.
There was self-criticism. They were reproached for shortcomings when executing the strategy they had designed: the lack of time to install the brand (a little more than two months); the investment (twenty times less than what they needed, according to the shipowners); and the lack of centralized management. “None of that happened. The objectives were half met. The cooperative-type assembly did not work,” says one of the papers that circulated among the governors. The work concludes: “A new brand requires more time and more resources.”
Low and behold, the accusations began. One of those targeted was Florencio Randazzo, who in Buenos Aires garnered just 2.44% of the votes. It fell behind the libertarians and Peronism, but also the left and the Federal Proposal. Fifth.
In the Buenos Aires elections in September, Somos, Randazzo’s party, had obtained twice as many votes. 5.25% of the register. If the former minister retained that percentage of the electorate, the United Provinces would have achieved at least one of its objectives: reaching double digits (10 points) at the national level. “What happened in Buenos Aires was bad: there was almost no campaign,” protested one of the founders.
Horizon. As the days went by, the governors left behind self-criticism and became emboldened by what may come. “We took the first step. And we were the third national force,” one harangued. And he concluded: “We are going to be key in Congress. It is not useful for the Government to be the first minority. It needs a simple majority.”
They still trust that some governors who played their own card in the election to ensure the result will join the space. They believe that with the passage of time, and the alliances they can make in Congress, they will reach a floor of twenty legislators of their own. “United Provinces is going to be the balance,” they enthused.
On Wednesday the 29th, the six governors met again on Zoom to decide if they would go to the meeting called by Javier Milei for Thursday the 30th and coordinate a unified strategy. Now as a bloc, they will seek not to feel used again as happened to them in the May Pact.
Having to participate in the meeting with the President was not comfortable for them after the crushing electoral defeat, but they had no room to make another decision: “We have been demanding dialogue, it would be contradictory not to go,” they pointed out.
Far from the expected debut, the governors of the United Provinces will have to make an effort so that the coalition does not dilute. They assure that the objective of having a competitive presidential candidate in 2027 remains intact. The question is the same: if there is room for a third way. For now, electoral experiences seem to indicate no.
Guillermo Seita, the brain that drives the United Provinces
Guillermo Seita tried again. Obsessed with creating a third way that escapes the polarization of the moment, the experienced consultant worked for the last two months with the governors of the United Provinces. The result, again, was not what was expected: according to their calculations, they would get 10 percent of the votes and twenty legislators. But they reaped 6.95% and only seven deputies and one senator. But the political advisor remains confident that the federal coalition will gain strength in Congress. “It will take time to establish the brand,” he maintains. The objective is long-term: he believes that he will manage to impose a competitive candidate for president in 2027.
