Bart De Wever’s Belgium has, for the time being, gotten its way. Ukraine has been in financial uncertainty for longer. European government leaders did not make further than vague promises on Thursday.
De Wever stood virtually alone. But without his support, no agreement could be reached between the leaders of the EU countries on the most discussed topic on the agenda of the European summit: the use of frozen Russian assets to alleviate the Ukrainian financial crisis.
De Wever had and remained very concerned about the consequences of such an intervention. Much of Russia’s money abroad, which has been frozen since the invasion of Ukraine, preventing the Kremlin from accessing it, is housed in Belgium. This is located at the financial services provider Euroclear in Brussels, a few kilometers from the building where the government leaders held their discussion.
It would indeed be a major and unprecedented intervention, the proponents of the plan also acknowledge. But Ukraine simply needs money quickly, money that the EU countries cannot or do not want to raise. There is a gap in the budget that will exceed 100 billion euros in the next two years alone. The IMF can no longer simply lend such an amount. No one counts on the US anymore.
De Wever stood alone
The Russian deposited money seemed a perfect solution to a precarious problem. This fall, the European Commission devised a plan in which 140 billion euros in frozen assets would be used as collateral for a loan to Ukraine.
Formally, there was no confiscation in this construction, although it was mainly that: a formality. Russia would only get the money back, the Commission proposed, if the country would help pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. An unlikely scenario. Left or right, Russia would pay.
“If it looks like confiscation, smells like confiscation, maybe you should call it a kind of confiscation,” said de Wever.
The Commission proposal was far from elaborated, let alone legally sound, but gained a lot of support in a short time. The proponents gained wings after Chancellor Friedrich Merz took a German turn at the end of September and embraced the proposal.
All the while, De Wever expressed his doubts: Russia could threaten Belgium with lawsuits, or confiscate assets or assets in Russia in retaliation. Still, the rest thought: Belgium can still catch up.
Much of Russia’s money abroad is held by the financial services provider Euroclear in Brussels
“Today we are making the political decision to meet Ukraine’s financial shortfalls in 2026 and 2027,” said António Costa. President of the European Council, optimistic on Thursday morning. “I hope they make a positive decision,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who attended the meeting in Brussels, said as he left in mid-afternoon.
Draft texts of the final declaration, which are carefully prepared by diplomats in the run-up to each summit, already included an invitation to the Commission to come forward with proposals “regarding the possible gradual use of the cash balances related to the immobilized Russian assets”.
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But De Wever did not receive enough guarantees to change tack now. The consultation came to a standstill. The sentence about the use of the credits was deleted, after much additional negotiations. The final conclusion still states that the EU countries are committed to addressing Ukraine’s financial problems. However, the Commission is now only invited to develop ‘financial support options’ and present them to the countries.
Belgium needs more time, diplomats from other countries said on Thursday evening. There is also understanding: the use of the credits has risks, and in the first place they hang like an albatross around De Wever’s neck.
Big risks
Towards the end of the evening, De Wever appeared before the press to explain once again how great the risks are. “Money from a central bank is comparable to an embassy: you don’t touch it. We are in uncharted territory. We will be bombarded with lawsuits anyway. Moscow has told us that we will suffer the consequences for eternity – that is a long time, eternity.”
To make these risks acceptable for Belgium, De Wever has been demanding guarantees for weeks. On Thursday evening he came up with a revised list. Belgium is in a stronger position if its assets elsewhere in the eurozone are also used. Russian money has also been frozen in France and Luxembourg. In addition, a country outside the eurozone must also tackle Russian assets to prevent reputational damage for the euro. Other EU countries must act as guarantors in case money needs to be repaid and those guarantees must be firm.
“I don’t want to be the bad boy,” said De Wever. “Now everyone says I’m a good boy: it looks like I’m at my funeral.”
The Belgian Prime Minister acknowledged that many countries really understand his concerns, but when push came to shove they did not provide convincing guarantees. He had, he said, asked his fellow leaders if they would give the guarantees in black and white. “That was not met with a tsunami of enthusiasm around the conference table.”
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De Wever did receive some help from Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), who had joined us for dinner. According to her, the Commission’s proposal was feasible, but only if the money is guaranteed when Russia could claim it.
In that case, Belgium must immediately be able to put 140 billion on the table, or more if there are additional claims for damages. That certainty must be there, otherwise it is not possible, De Wever summarized Lagarde.
Bought time
Most other countries are willing to help by sharing the risks. They just did not want to simply commit to covering private deposits and assets in Russia or the use of deposits at banks elsewhere in Europe – that is a different category than the money deposited with an investment house such as Euroclear. De Wever had insisted on this.
What now? If the Commission starts working on options, it is difficult to imagine an alternative to the use of Russian assets. De Wever has primarily bought time. Time when his diplomats will undoubtedly try to obtain as many guarantees as possible.
In the meantime, the clock is ticking: at the next EU summit, in mid-December, the pressure to reach agreement will be many times greater. And the European promise to help Ukraine financially from the new year is in black and white after Thursday evening.
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