Both of the Aces’ goalkeepers have excelled since the beginning of the season.
Aces goalkeeper Jan Bednar is one of the sensations of the SM league season. Tomi Natri / AOP
The most interesting game of the day
In the only game in the league, you should pay attention to Ässie’s goal. The team lost its super defender of the last seasons Niklas Rubin To Krapp. Many thought the move ruined the team’s chances of success this season. What’s more, Ässät has done it again and found a new super saver for his goal.
A young 23-year-old from the Grand Rapid Griffins Jan Bednar is proving to be one of the sensations of the season. Bednar has made eight saves for Äss in the ten games he has played and is right near the top in all categories in the league’s goalkeeper statistics. The save percentage of 93.16 qualifies for the first place, the average number of goals conceded 1.75 for the second place and the difference between goals conceded and expected goals conceded -9.36 for the second place in that statistic.
And that’s not all. Aces second keeper Philip Lindbergh shines in the statistics of guards who have played less with a reading of 94.51% / 1.65 / xGAE -5.23. At least the Aces are not falling for the goalkeepers.
Against SaiPa, Bednar is in the innings. In the evening’s match, Äss is lacking in attack Danick Martel and Balazs Sebök and defense Kasper Puutio. A small reduction of these compared to the optimum.
Start with SaiPa’s goal Kari Piiroinen (90.16% / 2.36 / xGAE -5.81), which means that the balls are well baked in the goalie game there as well. Lappeenranta’s ranks are missing a number one point man Patrik Siikanen and power defender Samuli Niinisaari. These have an impact on the team’s assumed powers.
The Aces are about 41 percent favorite in the match in terms of the actual playing time. The best bet search in that sector is SaiPa’s straight win with odds of 2.90. As the best pick for the entire match, I raise the 1.72 odds offered for under 5.5 goals.
In the statistics, the teams do not appear particularly low-goal, but this pair of matches, where two very well-fighting teams meet each other, reduces the expected number of goals in the match. As many as eight of the ten previous meetings have ended with less than 5.5 goals. My assessment now for under 5.5 goals is 58 percent.
Ässät–SaiPa exceptionally starts already at 17:30.
The best betting tip of the day
Of the 112 matches played so far in the Swiss league, 54.5 percent (61/112) have resulted in less than 5.5 goals. In recent seasons, the nature of the series has clearly changed in the direction of fewer goals. Especially in games that are characterized as top-of-the-table matches, playing defense plays a much bigger role today than before.
On Tuesday, the clear stamp of a top game is in the Fribourg–Zug match. In the light of the statistics, the teams have not scored particularly few goals. Fribourg’s over/under distribution is 9/7 and Zug’s is 7/9, but this game can still be expected to be accurate and low-goal. The fact that both teams have goalkeepers who belong to the absolute top of the league (Reto Berra 92.3% and Leonardo Genoni 92.5%).
My estimate for the Fribourg–Zug game under 5.5 goals is 61 percent. The tip was already in the tag yesterday with a coefficient of 1.70. The 1.64 offered now is also still a borderline case, but I won’t tag it again.
Another under, already hinted at on Monday, which experienced a drastic drop in odds, can be found in the match between Kloten and Servette. On Monday, under 5.5 goals got a coefficient of 1.91, so the current 1.76 is no longer palatable. Swiss league matches start at 20:45.
The best search for football games is the +0.25 handicap Hull against Leicester with odds of 1.93. This starts at 21:45.
Also Atletico Madrid +1.0 with odds of 1.82 as a guest of Arsenal is a possible target. This starts at 22:00.
Games of the day: –
The total balance of the day’s games: 142/252/103%
Every day Iltalehti chooses the most interesting game of the day and the best game destination of the day. You can always find them in the Betting and Ravit section.