By Manuel Priego Thimmel
Dow Jones-and Dax had to fight last. At times he noted between 23,400 and 24,600 points under the sliding zone, which had been intact for weeks. If it falls under this level sustainably, HSBC makes down potential for 1,200 points. September could then become the “seasonal month of terror” for the German selection index. But there is hope. Not only is the much better October in big steps for the stock exchanges. The US Federal Reserve has also indicated a deaf course for the coming months, which should basically support risk assets. In addition, the European economy again sends out the first signs of life.
The Fed delivered. Not only did she expect the key interest rates to reduce 25 basis points. The new interest propheses suggest that the US Federal Reserve will not only reduce interest rates by 25 basis points each in the coming two sessions. The interest proposals for 2026 and 2027 now also provide an additional reduction by 25 basis points. As Deutsche Bank notes, the FED has so far reduced the key interest rates by 125 basis points (BP) since the beginning of the interest reduction cycle in September 2024. You have to go back to the 1980s to find interest reductions in such a measure in a “non-recessive” environment. A historically clearly positive signal for the markets, says strategist Jim Reid.
The economy slowly attracts
The European economic data should also provide increasing support for the stock exchanges. Investors rely on the fact that the massive fiscal pulses from Berlin will boost the economy in the coming year. The signs are already on relaxation. According to Commerzbank, the data upcoming in the coming weeks should show that the European shopping manager indices and the IFO business climate continued to be slightly increased in September and thus repeat their double message of the past few months: the economy gradually attracts, although a strong upswing is not yet in sight.
The fact that the stock exchanges have so far developed weaker in September is not only related to seasonality, but also with the fact that the US investors have rediscovered the Wall Street for themselves. The trade conflict triggered by US President Donald Trump has lost a lot of his horror. According to the latest Fund Manager Survey of the Bank of America, the fund managers surveyed estimate the risk of a recession that triggered a recession with 20 percent after 80 percent in April. Professional layers have recently reduced positions in emerging countries and Europe to close short positions in US shares. However, this does not mean that they won’t come back to Europe.
A look at the historical development of the Dax since the beginning of the millennium has shown significant seasonal patterns. The negative tendency in the summer months is particularly striking. According to the DZ Bank, the DAX has had an average decline of 1.9 percent in September and 1.7 percent in August since 2000. Only in two of the past 24 years a profit of over 5 percent and thus a significantly positive monthly performance was achieved. In the period, however, price losses of more than 5 percent were available in seven years. “The reasons for this include the lower trading volume during the holiday season, growing economic worries and the quiet news situation,” said the analysts.
The seasonal picture turns from October
The seasonal picture turns from October. Since 2000, the DAX has achieved an average price increase of 2.3 percent in October and 2.5 percent in November. These two months mark the beginning of the so -called annual finals, which usually continues until December. “Various factors are discussed as possible causes for this phenomenon. For example, shifting and rebalancing of institutional investors play a role at the end of the year if they adapt their portfolios to targets or key days. Tax considerations can also influence purchase decisions,” says DZ Bank.
Chart technician Marcel Mussler looks very confident into the future. Already on Thursday the DAX celebrated a “brilliant comeback”. It is already more and more looking as if the new low this week was only a compulsory exercise. “And if I think of the reversal candle after false breakout in the weekly chart, then bull can really make you want more. The fourth quarter can come!” Should the DAX reset again after the starting rally the day before, the now above all the penultimate deep at 23,482 points will remain interesting and attractive for anti -cyclical purchases again.
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DJG/MPT/ROS
(End) Dow Jones Newswires
September 19, 2025 08:03 ET (12:03 GMT)