On September 30, the tax capacity for electric cars ends in the United States. Experts expect serious consequences for US manufacturers such as Tesla, GM and Ford.
• US tax credit for e-cars ends on September 30th
• Expert warns: US EV market could halve
• Tesla, GM & Ford are preparing for sales shock
The US market for electric cars is facing a decisive turning point. On September 30, 2025, the federal tax compensation for electric vehicles (EVS) expires. Experts warn of a drastic slump in demand. Particularly affected: industry giants such as Tesla, General Motors and Ford.
Expert warns: market share threatens to halve
So far, buyers in the USA have been able to benefit from a tax compensation that lowered the purchase price by up to $ 7,500. This instrument was an important driver for increasing demand for electricity. But President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” now ends this regulation abruptly.
According to Karl Brauer, Executive Analyst at Iseecars.com, the manufacturers are facing difficult months. “I think that the EV sales in the third quarter will probably rise slightly or at least remain strong, simply because buyers want to strike before the deadline on September 30,” said Karl Brauer, Executive Analyst at Iseecars.com, to Yahoo Finance.
But he adds: “I think we will see a significant decline afterwards. […] The US market share could drop significantly below 4 % immediately after the funding was lost on September 30th and may level off at around 4 % in early 2026. ”
In August 2025, according to the Cox Automotive, the EV share was 9.1 percent before the funding expired. Sales rose by 19.7 percent to over 130,000 vehicles in the year. This emerges a hard landing for the US market. Especially since other studies have so far been significantly lower.
Manufacturer under pressure: Tesla, GM, Ford and Co.
Some manufacturers are already trying to counteract. General Motors reported a new monthly record in August with more than 21,000 sold people in his brands Chevy, Cadillac and GMC. GM manager Duncan Aldred was nevertheless careful. “There is no doubt that we will see lower EV sales in the next quarter after the tax credits end on September 30th, and it could take several months for the market to normalize,” he warned in a press release dated September 2, 2025.
In order to keep the demand stable, discounts could play a role. Brauer explains to Yahoo Finance: “You may remember a few years ago when General Motors had exhausted the $ 7,500 credit […] Simply lowered the price of cars such as the fully electric bolt by $ 7,500. “The luxury EV manufacturer Lucid wants to grant a discount of $ 7,500 after the funding has expired.
Stress test for Tesla and Co.: Double headwind for the industry
However, the loss of tax compensation for consumers is only part of the problem for US manufacturers. The US government also strokes incentives for the production of electric cars and at the same time ends fines for manufacturers who have had to buy emission certificates from competitors such as Tesla.
It remains to be seen whether price cuts and marketing campaigns can prevent the impending EV exodus. For Tesla, GM and Ford, however, the fourth quarter could become a stress test.
Bettina Schneider / Editor Finanzen.net
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