Exciting days are waiting in France. The gamble of Prime Minister François Bayrou to put the survival of his government in the scales to make all political parties instructed about the disastrous financial situation of the country, threatens to explode in his face on Monday. And on Wednesday, the whole of France is in danger of being flat due to a general strike.
French Prime Minister Bayrou fears fall from his government
With a national debt of no less than 2,727 billion euros (114 percent of gross domestic product) and a budget deficit of 5.8 percent, France is one of the worst students in the European class. “We are at a critical point in our history,” said Prime Minister Bayrou in mid -July. “The moment of truth has come if we want to prevent international lenders from forceing us to heavy sacrifices, such as Greece in 2010.”
To reduce the budget deficit to 4.6 percent by the end of next year, the Prime Minister immediately announced a saving plan of no less than 43.8 billion euros. Most striking measures: abolishing two holidays and freezing pensions.
Ghost of the yellow vests
Immediately our already lightly flammable southern neighbors were on their rear legs. In the full holiday period – which is holy for many French people – a protest movement soon created via social media that called for national action on 10 September. According to a recent poll, two thirds of the French supports the idea to flatten the country that day. The ghost of the Gillets Jaunes From 2018 is again alive.
New financial crisis threatens in Europe: ‘The debts and deficits are only rising’
Two out of three French supports the ‘Bloquons Tout’ protection campaign from dissatisfaction with the saving operation planned by Bayrou. The opposition also made itself heard. The fact that Bayrou had let go all summer before going into dialogue about the savings, was heavily on their stomach. Also because his minority government can only survive with the grace of conservatives, the socialists and the right-wing-radical rassemblement National. They also announced that they would not save the government again – Bayrou already survived three motions of no confidence. And the Prime Minister certainly does not have to count on the support of the ecologists and the left La France Insoumise. In short, Bayrou is sitting on a shooting chair.
Headache in the Elysée
Whether the prime minister was naive or ‘stupid’ when he surprised friend and foe on 25 August with the announcement of the vote of trust? No, rather cunning, the unison sounds among political observers. If his government falls, Bayrou can say that he was one of the few to take his responsibility to save France: not “the fate of the prime minister” is at stake, but “the fate of France,” he said at the end of August. At the same time he plays the hot potato to Emmanuel Macron, with whom there has been noise on the line for a while
Emmanuel Macron © AFP
The president himself also had better times. According to the most recent popularity poll, he barely has the support of 19 percent of the French. Everything he does or says, gets criticism. No wonder that Macron mainly profiles itself internationally, as a pacemaker of the ‘coalition of willing’ who supports Ukraine and Zensky. He can miss the umpteenth government crisis in his own country as a toothache.
ET Maintenance?
The fact that Bayrou goes on Monday cups is almost certain. But what then? If it depends on Marine Le Pen, there must be new elections quickly: “Only the dissolution of parliament will give the French the opportunity to choose their own future.” That she has not been eligible for election since her conviction – she did appeal against the verdict, but that does not work suspensively – she would ignore her boot in order to force the constitutional council to speak out about the now notorious verdict.
On the other side of the political spectrum, La France Insoumise wants to go one step further: “We have to look at the ground of the case,” says Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “Bayrou is not responsible for the situation in which he is located. Those are all his predecessors, with their poor economic politics and their policy. If someone is responsible, then it is the president of the Republic.” And so on 23 September the Radical-left party wants to submit a ‘motion for deposition’ of the president. A motion that does not have a chance.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon © AFP
All other parties categorically refer to the trash: It is not time to put France into an adventure, it sounds. And it is questionable whether new parliamentary elections would yield a workable majority. Macron also seems to think so. Behind the scenes he is already looking for a new prime minister, the fifth since his re -election in 2022.
No shortage of names. From the presidential camp: the Ministers Sébastien Lecornu (Defense), Catherine Vautrin (Work & Health), Eric Lombard (Economy & Finance) or still Gérald Darmanin (Justice). On the right current Minister of the Interior Bruno Retaillleau (Les Républicains) or on the left PS party leader Olivier Faure and Bernard Cazeneuve, once Prime Minister under Hollande. Unless Macron still conjures up a white rabbit from his hat.