Despite uncertainties in the China business: Nvidia share before massive growth boost?

• China business harbors uncertainties
• Expert considers 50 percent growth in 2026 to be conceivable
• Blackwell chip for China?

NVIDIA share in focus after quarterly figures

Just last week, the chip giant Nvidia presented its finance results for the second quarter of 2025. The company managed to generate sales of $ 46.74 billion. Despite the improvement to the previous quarter, the great enthusiasm on the market failed to materialize for the time being. The main reason for this was that the company’s China business has great uncertainties and that the forecast was rather behavior.

Nevertheless, experts continue to look at the Nvidia share benevolently. Several large investment houses have confirmed their positive assessment of Nvidia according to the latest quarters and partially adapted. Analyst Ben Reits from Melius Research even considers it possible that Nvidia could reach a market capitalization of around $ 9 trillion by 2030.

View of 2026: 50 percent growth ahead?

The analysts’ consensus currently assume that Nvidia will increase its sales by around 29 percent in the coming financial year. But this potential could be significantly underestimated, as Marketwatch reports.

Gene Munster, formerly known Sell-Side-Analyst and today Managing Partner at Deepwater Asset Management, so you see indications that Nvidia’s management itself has far more optimistic expectations. The basis is an exchange at the end of the recent analyst conference: CEO Jensen was asked there whether the forecast $ 50 billion potential of the Chinese AI market-combined with a possible growth of 50 percent next year-was a realistic benchmark for Nvidia’s data center growth.

Huang evaded a clear confirmation, but according to Munster, his choice of words indicated that he does not consider such a scenario to be unrealistic. Huang in particular emphasized that major customers already have “very, very important forecasts” for the coming year, and also referred to the rapid growth in new AI startups.

According to Munster, if you read between the lines, Nvidia could rather achieve sales growth of 40 to 50 percent next year – provided China is developing more dynamic than other markets. The potential would therefore be significantly over the current expectations of Wall Street. However, trust in this higher growth is crucial to correctly evaluate Nvidia investments in the coming months.

Does the Blackwell chip come to China?

According to CNBC, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang also sees good chances of being able to offer the latest Blackwell chip in China-despite the existing US export reestrarians. “The opportunity to bring Blackwell onto the Chinese market is real for us,” said Huang in the conference conference on Nvidia’s latest quarterly results. “We simply have to emphasize the importance of American technology companies in order to be able to cite and win the AI ​​race and to contribute to the fact that the American technology stack becomes a global standard.”

The prerequisite for strong growth next year is therefore that Nvidia may sell its chips in China in a version adapted to the US provisions. After talks in the White House, the company received first licenses for the H20 chip, but so far there are no clear rules for the implementation of the agreed sales taxes of 15 percent to the US government.

It remains to be seen how the China business will continue in the future.

Editor finance.net

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