The disintegration of the outgoing cabinet is serious for the position of the Netherlands in the European Union, says Catherine de Vries, professor of political sciences with the European Politics chair at Bocconi University in Milan. “The political credibility of the Netherlands in Brussels has fallen further.”
It was already difficult, says De Vries. Because Prime Minister is partyless, he cannot participate in the informal pre-discussions that invest the large political groups in the EU (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Liberals) prior to meetings of the European Council. “As Prime Minister of VVD-Huize, Rutte was able to coordinate cases with French President Macron at the meeting of the European Liberals, for example, because there was such a possibility with the Cabinet Schoof from the start, the Netherlands was already 1-0 behind other Member States.”
When the cabinet fell and became outgoing in June, it lost authority in Brussels and the Netherlands found out 2-0, De Vries believes. “And now it is 3-0. Because the question is: can the Netherlands still do something at all? And that while during the Danish Presidency of the Council of the European Union (which runs from July 1 to the end of the year), the Netherlands important files are discussed for the Netherlands: Ukraine, Defense, Migration Policy, Expansion and Trade. Then you want the Netherlands to do that.”
Luuk van Middelaar, director of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, puts the possibly negative consequences for the Netherlands in Brussels, which can entail the youngest crisis in The Hague. He thinks it “may not matter that much.”
“For the big questions of the moment, Ukraine and the trade between the European Union and the United States, the Netherlands does not put much weight in the scale. Only Mark Rutte has a bit of Ukraine, but that is in his role of NATO Secretary General.
The political credibility of the Netherlands in Brussels has decreased further
“And before this crisis in The Hague, it was not that a Dutch prime minister would be part of, for example, the European delegation to Washington, to talk to President Trump about Ukraine there. In the Transatlantic Trade War there was no major role for the Netherlands – there are France, Germany, Italy and the European Commission.”
But according to Bert Koenders, former Minister of Foreign Affairs (2014-2017) and Van Development Cooperation (2007-2010), in foreign politics is generally reduced “the diplomatic power of the Netherlands. It is also seen that there is now a cabinet with very limited capacity in parliament.”
Eleven ministers in ten years
Over the past ten years, the Netherlands has successively had eleven ministers and acting ministers of Foreign Affairs. Only two of them were in office for more than two years. Minister Caspar Veldkamp left on Friday after just over a year, his position will be observed for the time being by Minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans.
“Those fast changes at the top of the department weaken the position of the Netherlands,” says Koenders. “As a minister you need time to build coalitions with colleagues from other countries, so that you have back cover when needed and can take initiatives together.
“This is a time of major changes. Europe is more and more alone. Now the choices are made how we as Europe continue, and you as the Netherlands want to be able to talk about it. So the parliament now has to set a number of broad lines to be able to conduct effective foreign politics.”
Abroad will notice that the Netherlands is less represented by ministers and state secretaries, says former permanent representative at the European Union and former ambassador in Paris Pieter de Gooijer, nowadays consultant in Brussels. “A day only has 24 hours, and if you get a different portfolio as a minister or state secretary, it means that you can no longer do a number of things that actually belong to properly fulfilling your position. A Minister of Foreign Affairs who is also Minister of Defense will have to stay more often in the Netherlands – for example for consultation with the House.”
Those rapid changes at the top of the department weaken the position of the Netherlands
Of course there are always ambassadors who can represent the Netherlands at meetings abroad, “but that is not entirely the same. As a diplomat you are a civil servant, and not a politician. The visibility and audibility of the Netherlands will decrease abroad – and therefore also the effectiveness of foreign policy. We will make a little less own proposals, and take a more effect on the consensus.”
De Gooijer does not believe that it was painful or problematic for the Ukrainian president Zensky that Prime Minister shoved his intended visit to Kyiv on Friday due to the crisis. “As long as The Hague makes it clear to him that there is continuity of the policy that he can continue to count on the Netherlands.”
In the policy for Israel and Gaza, it is more uncertain what will happen now. “That is a point of discussion between government and parliament. Veldkamp was in a stalemate. He was convinced that there should be more pressure on Israel, but he did not get the cabinet – while there was the threat of a chamber majority for a motion of no confidence against him. That stalemate will also come across his successor.”