Despite increasing inflation, the FED keeps the key interest stable, while the US economy is growing surprisingly strongly in the second quarter. In Germany, on the other hand, GDP shrinks slightly due to the increasing burdens of US customs policy. Tech giants provide strong quarterly figures. Microsoft shines with a AI-driven record quarter and Amazon, surgically, but the cautious view brakes the stock.
Global stock market – markets again in turmoil
After US President Donald Trump unexpectedly targeted new countries for the tariffs, many global indices gave up. In Friday afternoon, the DAX® noted around 2.24 percent below the pre -week closing course. The Dow Jones Industrial Average® was around 1.76 percent on Thursday evening, compared to the pre -week course. The technology-based NASDAQ-100 Index® also gave up by around 0.23 percent compared to the pre-week closing course on Thursday evening.
Fed interest rate decision-US inflation attracts, Fed is waiting
Inflation in the USA is again gaining speed. The PCE index, the preferred level of inflation of the US Federal Reserve, was 2.6 % higher in June than in the previous year. In May the value was still 2.3 %. The core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, also slightly attracted 2.8 %. Since private consumption is a central growth driver of the US economy, the Fed observes this development closely. Despite the attractive price increase, the Fed left the key interest rate at 4.25 % to 4.50 % in its July meeting. Central Bank boss Jerome Powell referred to uncertainties in the economic environment and left open whether an interest rate was carried out in September. Currently, interest dealers see a probability of 64 % for a reduction.
GDP USA-US BIP grows more than expected, sustainability questionable
The EU has presented a new offer in the trade conflict with the United States. Brussels would be ready to accept a flat-rate custom of 15 percent to European industrial goods on the condition that no further barriers are established by the US government. It is still open whether President Trump accepts this offer. At the same time, the EU is intensively preparing for the failure of the talks. From August 7th, against tariffs could automatically use US products worth 93 billion euros. Unconventional sanctions are also up for debate, such as in the area of services and investments. A recently signed deal between the United States and Japan also weakens the EU position. Should Trump be able to notice his announcement and – recently – to impose tariffs of 30 percent on August 7, European exporters face considerable competitive disadvantages.
GDP Germany – German economy slips into the minus
In the second quarter, the German gross domestic product dropped by 0.1 %. Economists had expected stagnation or slight growth. The numbers for the first quarter were also slightly corrected downwards. The decline follows an early drawing effect at the beginning of the year. At that time, companies had preferred deliveries to new US tariffs. Now the burdens of US customs policy, which are particularly noticeable in exports. From August 1st, 15 % US tariffs come into force on EU imports. German auto exports have been burdened with 27.5 % since April.
Amazon share quarterly figures falls, even though the expectations have been exceeded
Amazon delivered strong numbers in the second quarter of 2025. Sales rose by 13 % to $ 167.7 billion, the profit per share with $ 1.68 was significantly higher than expectations. The operational margin also exceeded the forecast with 11.4 %. Growth driver was again the Cloud business AWS with a plus of 17 %. Amazon also gained in the trade segment. In North America, sales rose by 11 %, third-party services also grew in two digits. For the third quarter, Amazon expects sales of up to $ 179.5 billion. The forecast surgical profit is quite wide at 15.5 – 20.5 billion. Despite the strong numbers, the stock fell by around 7 %, since the cloud division failed to expect market expectations despite its increase in sales.
Quarter figures from Microsoft – share shoots up
Microsoft clearly exceeded the market expectations in the final quarter of the 2025 financial year. Sales rose to $ 76.44 billion, the profit per share was clearly over the forecast at $ 3.65. The driver was again the cloud segment. The intelligent cloud area achieved $ 29.88 billion. Azure grew by impressive 39 % – significantly stronger than expected. Office, LinkedIn and Windows also contributed to the strong overall picture. The operational margin remained high, the operating result was $ 34.32 billion above the estimates. The AI investments remain high, but should be used more efficiently in the future. The stock reacted with a jump of over 8 %. Investors are enthusiastic about the persistent AI and cloud boom as well as the solid cost control.
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Source: HSBC