According to US President Donald Trump, peace between Cambodia and Thailand is within reach. Since Thursday, the Asian neighboring countries are fighting each other militarily in an increasingly larger area along the border With increasingly heavier weapons. On his Platform Truth Social, Trump stated on Saturday that he spoke to the leaders of both countries. Cambodia and Thailand have confirmed that they are open to conversations about a ceasefire. Despite the diplomatic efforts, on Sunday, artillery shoots and rocket attacks started on Sunday. There are now more than thirty dead and two hundred thousand people had to flee to temporary accommodations in sports halls, schools and tents.
1
What is this conflict about?
On Thursday, a border conflict floated between Thailand and Cambodia that is more than a century old. The current limit of 817 kilometers long was established in 1907, when France was a colonizer of Cambodia. Thailand fought this limit, along which there are important temples, a few times. In 1962, Thailand obtained the International Court of Baking Sail and the eleventh-century Preah Vihear temple was assigned to Cambodia. In 2013 this decision was confirmed by a judicial UN committee, but it left in the middle to whom the surrounding area belongs.
Earlier this year, tensions flared up. In May a Thai soldier shot a Cambodian soldier in the disputed area in the disputed area. Then five Thai soldiers were seriously injured by a land mine. According to Thailand, Cambodia has been acting aggressively for weeks, stationing troops in the border area, installing trenches and placing land mines. Cambodia denies this and says that the landmines are from old wars.
2
Who started the current hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia?
Both countries accuse each other of unloading the first shot. According to Cambodia, Thai soldiers opened the TA Moan Thom Temple, claimed by both countries, the fire on Cambodian soldiers. Thailand says that Cambodia started the attack. Both countries say they act out of self -defense. There is no free press in Cambodia, which was led for 38 years with a hard hand by current senate chairman. Verification is therefore difficult. The army is very influential in Thailand. Because a conservative military elite puts pressure on the democratic process and free press, finding the truth also has limitations. Thailand is a military superior to Cambodia. Cambodia mainly fires artillery rooms and affects civilian goals in Thailand. Thailand uses F-16s and, in his own words, bombs, Cambodian military goals. Cambodia accuses Thailand of the use of controversial cluster bombs.
3
Who pull the strings in neighboring countries?
Key characters behind the conflict are the patriarchs of two powerful families, autocrat their sen and the Thai businesstycoon Thaksin Shinatra. The men would get to know each other in the nineties, when Thaksin entered Thai politics through Thai politician Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, both men political support offered. Their Sen was succeeded by his son in 2023, but his grip on the land is still undisputed. Although the political career of Thaksin Shinatra was less successful, the relationship between the two men seemed unbreakable. Even when Prime Minister Thaksin was dropped off by the Thai army in 2006 and he fled abroad, their sen remained faithful to him. He made an unexpected twist when he leaked a telephone conversation with Thaksin’s daughter, Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinatra in May, to put her in a bad light. Paetongtarn insulted a Thai army commander in the telephone conversation. After the scandal, she was put on non-active and the coalition of the Shinatra’s PHEU Thai party is weakened.
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4
What interests play in the background?
In the Japanese news medium Nikkei Asia, political scientist Hiroshi Yamada suggests that their sen uses the political chaos in Thailand to settle the border conflict in Cambodia’s advantage. He also benefits from the disintegration of the PHEU Thai party, because this party pursues legalization of casinos and wanted to tackle illegal practices at the border. Their Sen and his faithful deserve a capacity for Cambodian casinos, often run by Chinese gangs, who also force people to inform others online. It is conceivable that their sen has contacts with influential Thai soldiers, who want to break the power of the Shinatra clan and find it no problem to tolerate illegal casino activities in Cambodia. The conflict also plays the Thai army in the map. In the border region, the state of siege has been declared and that means more power for the army. The popularity of Paetongtarn has reached a low point. If she is convicted in the lawsuit hanging above her head, Pro-Junta will benefit from the parties.
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5
Nobody has an interest in an elongated military conflict. Why continue to fight?
According to analysts, Thailand shows her military predominance to force Cambodia to withdraw. “But if Thai rulers have the goal of winning territory, this is a risky strategy,” warns a diplomat at Nikkei Asia. “When Cambodia goes to the UN again, Thailand runs the risk of the disputed border area to have to give up forever to Cambodia. ”
6
Is there a view of a diplomatic solution?
According to Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, chairman of the ASEAN Regional Partnership Association, both parties are willing to go to the table on Monday. A UN consultation remained without results on Friday. The Thai and Cambodian reactions to President Trump’s statement are somewhat encouraging. Thailand, which does not want a third party’s interference, stated on Saturday that it wants to talk “provided Cambodia shows that sincere intentions”.