It was his first victory in wars. A fragile victory, with more than one Achilles heel, but entirely yours. So yours that possibly releases it from the political trial that they could apply for having ordered military action without the approval of Congress.
If for him and for his fundamentalist partners in the Israeli government, Benjamín Netanyahu would not have stopped the war until the fall of the Persian theocracy or until the destruction in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Be’ersheva and other cities, reach an unbearable level for Israeli society.
Although he has come to say that Iran beat Israel and slapped the United States, also Ayatola Jamenei and his fanatic regime would have continued the war of not being for the US attack. But it was not the alleged destruction of the underground facilities that would have caused the GBU-57 bombs launched by the intimidating B-2 poachers on the underground facilities of Natanz and Fordo, which forced to accept the cessation of the fire.
The total destruction described by the White House is contradicted by what is chattened in the pentagon halls and in certain offices of the CIA headquarters in Langley. But even if the damages to the centrifuging facilities that increase the proportion of U-235 isotopes in the natural uranium would have been devastating, that was not what put Ali Jamenei against the ropes. In short, the destroyed was a future capital and in this war Iranians were not using nuclear weapons. They were using ballistic missiles and Shahed’s projectiles, the Iranian version of the powerful Nodong Norcoreanos.
In this way, destroying future war (even if it is a near future) the US bombings did not affect the fire capacity of the Iranians in this war. Why were the “bunkerbuster” bombs thrown by those gigantic bats that crossed the Atlantic to attack Izfahan, Natanz and Fordo what he put against the ropes to the ropes? Because that bombing brought a blunt message: Trump is willing to enter the war, therefore, to the long -range missile arsenals that they are using against Israel, they will also have to use them against the swarm of US military bases disseminated by all the countries of the Arabian Peninsula, with the exception of Lebanon, Israel and Yemen.
If the result of the war between Iran and Israel depended on that Iran had many more ballistic and medium -sized missiles than the interceptor projectiles available to Israel, the direct entry of the United States in the conflict would force the Iranians to exhaust their ammunition faster because the whites would be multiplied to attack. Something that Iran was not in a position to cope with.
A similar reason made Israel accept the high fire without having achieved its most precious goal: the fall of the Ayatolas regime. If the United States stops strengthening, from its aircraft carriers and launch ships, the interceptor projectiles of the Arrow system, which is the one that protects the Israelis from the long -range Iranian missile The 2028, Israel’s defensive capacity would be affected.
On the phone, the shouts, Trump demanded that the Israeli premier be satisfied with what was achieved in these twelve days, which is not little, because if not the risks that he would face they would be considerable. The chief of the White House had reasons to pose of successful pacifier and heavyweight of the international board, patting at the NATO summit made in The Hague. Joe Biden wanted to put limits to Netanyahu and never got it. Not even temporarily suspending the supply of weapons and ammunition to Israel made the murky right -wing leader to stop the massacres of civilians and let humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
Trump either got it either. Months ago he announced a cessation of fire in Gaza that Israeli prime minister destroyed immediately. Since then, Trump did not hide his contempt for Netanyahu, which returned more credible the threat with which he imposed to accept the cessation of the fire and forget to continue the war contest until he kill the Ayatola Jamenei and overthrow the medieval theocracy.
The American president needed this “the war of twelve days”, not one more. That would show him as a “statesman” of peaceful prominence, as he intends to be, and perhaps even he would bring him closer to the Nobel Peace Nobel who longs as his Argentine fan Javier Milei longs for the Nobel Prize in Economics from which he is at an oceanic distance.
He succeeded. But that achievement could have expiration date because Netanyahu and Jamenei did not want the cessation of hostilities at that time. They had to accept it because whoever governs the main military power of the planet imposed them in a bad way. With the cessation of fire, Netanyahu was much better standing than the old Ayatola Chiita. In the surprising actions with which Israel began the war, he managed to decapitate the military dome and the scientific direction of the nuclear program, in addition to destroying a good number of military facilities and development sites of the nuclear program.
Its weak point is ten percent of vulnerability of the Arrow of long -range ballistic missile interceptors and its David’s Sling system, which intercepts medium -range projectiles. To intercept ninety percent of the ballistic missiles launched from Iran, Israel consumes the equivalent amount in interceptive projectiles. While the ten percent that manages to avoid that anti -aircraft also made the Israelis spend the equivalent of interceptors: the antimisile projectiles that failed to explode in flight to the Iranian bombs.
Iran was losing the war, but with an achievement not less: the rockets that could pierce Israeli defenses left postcards of destruction in Israeli cities that the world had never seen, damaging Israel’s invincibility image. That was one of the reasons why Netanyahu wanted Trump to get involved beyond the bombings in Izfahán, Natanz and Fordo. The prime minister wanted to end the regime. But that was not Trump’s plan or appetite. That is why the Chief of the White House burst against the Israeli leader when the bombings continued to be completed the time indicated to start the ceasefire, ordering him very badly that he made the bomber aircraft return that were looking for targets of attack in the Iranian territory.
At that time, and hours before, when Euphoric proclaimed “God bless Israel, God bless Iran,” Trump showed that he does not feel any personal aversion towards Persian theocracy. He is the first president of the United States since the capture of the American Embassy of Tehran in 1979, which does not hate that fundamentalist regime.
Carter, Reagan, Bush Padre, Clinton, Bush son, Obama and Biden, just like the rest of the American political class, saw him and see him as an aggressive dark psychotic outbreak, whose founder, Ruholla Jomeini, called the United States “the great satan” and dictated a fata ordering to kill the writer Salman Rushdie for the novel Satanic verses. And it still has medieval laws that pen with gallows homosexuality, among other brutally recalcitrant features. Instead Trump talks about Iran as a country with a “great commercial future.”
I shouldn’t surprise. It has long been clear that he admires Vladimir Putin and does not sympathize with any European ruler since Boris Johnson was ejected from Downing Street. That he feels more comfortable with a autocrat than with democratic leaders explains why he does not care or continues to prevail over Iran a handful of fans. However, at the Hague Summit he saw Trump back to NATO, alliance from which he intended to take out the United States. And if he is back it is because Putin bombarded his alleged truces and peace negotiations in the war in Ukraine, in the same way that Netanyahu had done it in Gaza.
The issue is not that the chief of Kremlin is an autocrat who murders his challenging and launches criminals wars of territorial expansion. The issue is that he left him ridiculous when he posed as a peacemaker in Slavic lands. That is why he could even agree on the “acting” Iranian attack on the American base of Al Ubeid and then thanked the Shiite regime to warn with time that he would launch a few missiles. That it is an Islamist theocracy that remains in power by the gigantic repressive apparatus that crushed mass protests with massacres, it is not a problem for Trump.
By the way, the other partners and allies of Washington in the Persian Gulf are absolutist monarchies, that is delay regimes. Although they have built ultramodern global cities, modernity is only in architecture, abundant in skyscrapers with shapes that challenge the law of gravity, huge airports, the best airlines in the world and highways crossing the desert. But treating Iran as if it were another state, it is something that only Trump showed with the words he chose and with his refusal to allow Netanyahu to follow the war until destroying the theocratic regime.
That he will bless Israel will already scream “these guys are crazy” and use phrases that sound rare in political scenarios, such as “I am not happy with Israel,” he confirmed that Trump does not belong to the world of politics. That does not weaken him before his bases in American society. On the contrary. But it is possible that the Achilles heels of the cessation of the fire that they achieved end up exposing the weak flank of their performance: to have as its guide its inflamed ego and prioritize their own leading vedetism in the international scenarios.
The fragility of cessation the fire that managed to impose could be the door where the conflict returns. The best result that could be obtained would be a Central Asian version of the armistice that in 1953 ended the Korean War. That cessation of hostilities never became a peace agreement. North Koreans and South Koreans are still technically in war, but the armistice has been valid for 72 years. Will it be achieved between Israel and its Persian archNEEMIGO establish a 38 parallel that is not violated again?
It seems easier to imagine this cessation of fire by jumping through the air. It would be at the time when the Mossad and the IFF are sightly in a target that allows the enemy regime to be given. Or when Iranian military power has recovered from the hard blows received and has much more full ballistic missile arsenals than as this war found them.
In the case of Iran there is a more dangerous possibility: that obtains nuclear missiles ready to be triggered. North Korea could be provided, the country that helped Tehran build the Shahed drones. He could also buy them to the Pakistani President Asif Alí Zarari, a corrupt widower of Benazir Butho whose negotiated ones ruined the two governments to his murdered wife. Producing its own nuclear weapons is indispensable to be a nuclear power, but to perform an atomic attack it reaches with obtaining them as it is.
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