Europe barked to Israel for a moment, but is back

Emmanuel Macron still believes in diplomacy. Friday, after a week of attacks between Israel and Iran and just before a European delegation in Geneva would talk to an Iranian delegation, the French president said that Europe was working on an “extensive negotiating bid.” Iran should tempt that bid to stop enriching uranium for all purposes and should prevent a war with Israel and the US.

But how realistic is that role for diplomacy – and for Europe? The Iranian Foreign Minister had already left little doubt before the conversations in Geneva how much confidence he had in a successful outcome of this diplomatic approach. Feel free to say: zero.

“We clearly said that talking makes no sense as long as there is no end to this [Israëlische] Aggression, “said Abbas Araghchi on the Iranian state television.

A week after Israel’s first attack on Iran, and almost two years after the Hamas attack of 7 October unleashed an extremely violent Israeli war campaign in Gaza, two conclusions about European performance on the world stage can be drawn. First: the EU is again on the sidelines in a large geopolitics conflict in its neighboring region. And second: when it comes to Israel, European top politicians are barely able to even keep up the appearance of unanimity. For a long time, Europe did not look as divided as this week.

Take the words of Ursula von der Leyen, the highest boss in the European Commission, and those of Kaja Kallas, the foreign chef in the same committee, this week. Where Kallas called on all parties “to abandon actions that make the situation escalate,” said Von der Leyen in short that “Israel has the right to defend himself.” The committee chairman added that “Iran is the main responsible for regional instability.”

No doubt

The immovable support of Von der Leyen to Israel led to frustration and annoyance among many a European diplomat. Because it is precisely next week that European governments will have to confess color and speak of the Israeli action in Gaza and on the West Bank.

That first happens on Monday, when the Foreign Ministers from all over the EU meet in Brussels. And then on Thursday, as well as the 27 government leaders travel to Brussels immediately after the NATO summit for a top meeting.

A diplomat from one of the European countries who hope that the EU will express itself fiercely and connect consequences to it looks at it with skepticism. “You can imagine that there are countries that will say about measures against Israel: not in this context, not now.”

There will be one document on the meeting table that is eagerly looking forward to: the investigation into whether Israel will adhere to the human rights conditions of his trade treaty with the EU. That investigation, initiated by the Dutch cabinet through the Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp (NSC) and received support from a majority of EU countries, could sometimes lead to sanctions, is expected.

What exactly is in the report is officially unknown. But on Friday evening, just before a first consultation where the document would be discussed by top diplomats from all Member States, a Brussels source confirms NRC That according to the investigation “indications are that Israel would violate human rights provisions”.

Nobody doubted that outcome in advance. “If you watch television and read the newspaper, it is not difficult to anticipate what conclusion they come up with,” EU president António Costa, who presents the meetings of the government leaders, dropped out this week.

Zoom in

In addition, the EU foreign service, which carries out this investigation, performed last year Also an investigation into Israeli actions in Gaza, on the Jordoever and in Lebanon. Although it was not explicitly in the text at the time, the reader could only conclude that Israel has violated international humanitarian law time and time again.

The big question is therefore not so much whether Israel is breaking the conditions – the country does, the research report will conclude – but whether the EU also links consequences to that. And the tensions that Israel has unleashed with the attack on Iran could matter.

Turn

In recent weeks, a turning point was visible in the European attitude towards Israel. A handful of critical voices, from countries such as Spain and Ireland, has always been there. Then a larger number of government leaders started to stand out steadily from the Israeli government.

Even Germany, in addition to the US, the most loyal ally of the state of Israel, spoke out for the first time, albeit with some hesitation. “The fact that the Israeli army is currently doing in Gaza can no longer be justified as a fight against Hamas’ terrorism,” said Friedrich Merz, the fresh German Chancellor, at the end of May.

But this week Merz again sounded like an ultrasound of his country and party colleague Von der Leyen. The Chancellor denounced the Iranian regime, did not reject American military interference in the war in advance and even grateful to the government of Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview with the German broadcaster ZDF: “Israel is getting the dirty work for us.”

The escalation of the conflict with Iran hangs like a dark cloud above the Israel judgment. Critics of the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, who seemed to have had the wind for a moment, fear that some government leaders will now recover to punish Netanyahu.

That would be a shame, these critics say, because both the investigation and any consequences for the Trade Convention would be a clear signal to Israel. Sources in Israel confirm to NRC That the investigation there is indeed high in government circles. Not only because the EU is the largest trading partner of Israel, but also because of the symbolism of such a sharp conviction.

Separate matters

The hope among the proponents of the investigation has not yet disappeared. “These are two separate cases,” said a diplomat from one of the EU countries who supported the investigation. Another: “I think it doesn’t help the EU to mix both things too much.”

What consequences the EU will connect to a critical research report is still extremely uncertain. The ball lies with the European Commission, but it will only come up with a proposal after it has been expanded with national governments in the EU countries.

The suspension of the entire trade treaty is unlikely anyway. For this, the committee needs the unanimous support of all EU countries, which is missing. To partly suspend the treaty, a majority of countries are sufficient.

In addition, diplomats are alluded to announcing loose sanctions. For example, next week, Sweden is expected to insist on punishing the extremist Israeli cabinet members I Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, following, among others, the United Kingdom, Canada and Norway. Under the leadership of Belgium, a group of countries also insists on the complete prohibition of all trade with the illegal settlements in occupied Palestinian territory. The Netherlands is not included.

Coordinating sanctions will become ‘an extremely delicate process’, says a Brussels initiate, just as the creation of a majority for the investigation was. And then there is the chance of further escalation, for example through the US interference in the war.

The White House will decide in the next two weeks whether it will mix in battle, said President Donald Trump this week. A concrete debate about consequences because of the investigation is only expected at the next ministerial top in Brussels, mid -July.

Who knows what can still happen in the meantime, a diplomat whose country argues for stronger action from the EU to Israel. “That is an eternity away.”

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