How to improve poker? We face with the concept of variance

The long -term concept is one of the key aspects of poker. The more we play the more we will find ourselves in front of choices, decisions, strategies to be applied. Everything does not always go as hoped but even when we win, be careful not to overvaluate ourselves. To improve poker we have to face the concept of variance well

Wrong preconceptions

–

We all make mistakes, especially decision -making. Science tells us that on average, in one day, we find ourselves facing thousands of choices, large or small. Unfortunately we do not have the time to reflect on each of being and therefore we rely on the so -called cognitive bias. An example can be the classic launch of a coin: we admit that Croce has just come out and that you touch us first in the next launch. Many will tend to say “head”. The preconception is simple: since it has just come out cross there is more likely to come out. If we also focused 5 minutes to reflect we would know that the probability is the same because every event has a story in itself. It is different to say “5 heads in a row” before the first launch will be released. Let’s assume that he really comes out heads: our “I” would take the reasoning (wrong) made for good and would memorize it as “good”. We have a case of winning which, however, has not arrived thanks to an objective knowledge of the events. Of this kind of preconceptions (or bias) there are many also at the poker table. If we win we are good, if we lose we have been unlucky. Too simple: reasoning in this way often leads to the defeat that is reflected in an economic loss

Improve poker and the concept of variance

–

In order to progress as players we have to get to know the concept of variance. As we have often said, poker, mathematics and economics have many points in common. In a very “trivial” way we could say that the variance measures the fortune and unfortunate of a player. Obviously the concept is a little more complicated than that: even a very good player may not go to a prize for 10 tournaments in a row. Did it become scarce from today? No. Cross a moment in which we lose a 100 BB coinflip and win a 2 BB one is standard. The variance indicates the possible depreciation from our expected value: we know that going award to the big tournaments is not easy. Our expected value is low. Nothing strange if for a long time of events we do not go itm. This is the negative variance. Given our expectation, which we obtain by comparing the long -term results, we can “run” well and be on the right side of the coinflips, or lose twice with the axes in allin preflop! To break down the variance you have to play so much because in the long period the numbers do not lie and they tell us our real level of poker