The DAX is in a record mood. As gratifying as the youngest stock market rally is, it raises the question of how reliable the estimates of analysts are.
• DAX on record trip
• Analysts’ annual goals already significantly overfilled
• An unexpected factor drives the share prices
The German leading index for the first time in its history skipped the psychologically important hurdle of 24,000 points on Tuesday. After his phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin President Donald Trump gave the prospect of immediate negotiations in the Vatican about an ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, thereby evoking vague hopes for an end to the fights. If the conversations actually make a breakthrough, this would take a long -term uncertainty factor for the market, analyst Thomas Altmann from QC Partners commented. From this, the DAX fueled Tuesday trading 0.42 percent higher at 24,036.11 points. And the record hunting continued on Wednesday, so that he could hold the 24,100 mark.
Experts surprised
The strong performance of the DAX in the previous course of the year came as a surprise to experts. Because after the stock market year 2024 characterized by record stalls, many of them warned of excessive expectations for 2025. Due to the expected uncertainties related to the aggressive trade policy of US President Donald Trump, they had assumed a weak first half of the year at the turn of the year. If you had an improvement in the DAX at all, then only in the second half of 2025.
The DAX forecasts in detail
Jochen Stanzl had shown itself quite optimistic for the further DAX development at the end of 2024. However, according to the “Handelsblatt”, even the chief market analyst at CMC markets due to the change in the White House assumed that the new year will “start with a pessimistic note” and that the second half of the year will only bring rising courses. He saw the DAX climbing at 22,100 points at the end of 2025 – for comparison: The German leading index ended the year 2024 at 20,024.66 points.
A very similar tendency forecast Sören Hettler from the DZ Bank research team for the same reasons. He promised that the DAX would fall to 19,500 points by the middle of the year, but until then “should be shares and Financial markets have gradually accustomed to the new US president “. In addition,” other topics, including corporate profits, should then Monetary policy And artificial intelligence, back to the fore, “predicted the expert and therefore called out an increase to 21,500 points as the end of the year.
A positive tendency was also expected at Donner & Reuschel and the decabank. Carsten Mumm, chief economist of the private bank Donner & Reuschel, a year -end destination – driven by falling key interest rates and a moderate economic recovery “forecasted 22,000 points. Joachim Schallmayer, a senior capital market strategy at Dekabank, had also predicted at the turn of the year that the economy would “continue to grow despite all the uncertainties around the Trump election”, with positive consequences for corporate profits and share prices. In view of this, he promised an increase to 21,800 points for the DAX by the end of 2025.
While all these analysts calculated with a weak first half of the year, they still assumed that the DAX can ultimately complete the year after a recovery phase. However, this optimism was not shared at the LBBW. There it was feared that the DAX would fall to 19,000 points as a result of the “US budget problem” by the end of the first quarter of 2025 – which did not appear in the subordinate view. For the second half of the year, Research Manager Berndt Fernow then predicted a recovery, which he only considered limited due to geopolitical conflicts, higher inflation and fewer interest rate cuts in the United States. Therefore, the LBBW analyst forecast only a DAX stand of 20,000 points at the end of 2025 and thus under the final level 2024.
Conclusion
Of course, the year 2025 is not yet over and nobody knows with certainty how the courses develop until then. However, what can already be said is that investors have so far been less unsettled by the erratic policy of US President Donald Trump than feared by analysts. Although the stock exchanges actually broken down in April after the announcement of the US tariffs, investors quickly ticked this off and driven the DAX at heights, which analysts when they had made their forecasts at the turn of the year did not expect.
The German stock market gave the German stock market an effect that the analysts have not yet foreseen at the turn of the year and were therefore unable to calculate: At the beginning of March 2025, the CDU and SPD announced that they are planning an extensive financial package of 500 billion euros for defense and infrastructure. This announcement took place as part of its exploratory talks after the Bundestag election and in particular inspired the share prices of armaments and infrastructure values, but also the German market in general.
Editor finance.net