The death of Jorge Bergogliooccurred on April 21 in Rome, shocked not only the Catholic world, but also international politics. Pope Francis, the first Latin American pontiff, the reformist who wanted to take the Church to the peripheries, left the throne of San Pedro vacant after more than a decade of papacy. Today, while their legacy begins to be the subject of dispute, 134 cardinals prepare to lock themselves in the Sistine chapel and choose his successor in a conclave that promises to be as decisive as unpredictable.
It will be May 7 when, under strict rules of confidentiality, the purpurated under 80 years, all designated during the last three pontificate, but with a mostly Bergoglian bias, they will begin the choice of 267 ° Pope. There, in the midst of ancestral rites, handwritten votes and the worldwide expectation of the White Fumata, not only a name will be defined, but the future of the Church in the 21st century.
The scenario that inherits the next Pope is inevitably, the one that Francisco modeled. Bergoglio tried, with successes and frustrations, to transform the Church into an institution less focused on Europe, closer to the poor, open to historical debates such as the role of women or the place of homosexuals. Despite internal resistances, he left a deep mark, especially in the choice of new cardinals from Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Suffrage. Of the 134 voters, Francisco appointed 107 during his papacy, 22 were appointed by Benedict XVI and only five candidates were chosen by John Paul II. In practical terms, this should guarantee the continuity of its pastoral line, but in Vatican politics nothing is so simple. Tensions between conservatives and progressives silently go through sacristies and private conversations.
According to transcended, the main candidates combine continuity and change. The Italian Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State, appears as a natural favorite. It is moderate, diplomatic, firm hand and would be a consensus option for those who seek stability.
In turn, Matteo ZuppiArchbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian Episcopal Conference, is the name that represents the continuity of Bergoglyian philosophy. Known for its social sensitivity and its openness to dialogue, it has support inside and outside Italy.
Another with papal potential is Luis Antonio TagleFilipino and Prefect of Dicastery for Evangelization, which combines charism, relative youth (is 67 years old) and a strong harmony with the missionary spirit driven by Francis. His choice would symbolize a definitive decidencialization of the Church. For its part, the Congolese Fridolin Ambongo Besungu65, embodies the conservative wing. His eventual choice would mean a clear turn to more traditional positions.
Beyond those mentioned, there may be surprises, such as Cardinal Canadian Marc Ouellet, Hungarian Péter Erdö or even the Argentine Víctor Manuel “Tucho” Fernándezalthough in this case his closeness to Francisco could play against the sectors that seek a change of tone.
The current conclave reflects the new Catholic geography, Africa and Asia are the continents where Catholicism grows more strongly, while Europe becomes a cultural battlefield. Of the 134 voters, 52 are from Europe, 23 of Asia, 18 of Africa, 17 of South America, 16 of North America, 4 of Central America and 4 of Oceania.
This rebalancing could favor, for the first time in history, the choice of a black Pope. Although the expression loads with colonial dyes that they bother today, the possibility that an African cardinal, such as Sarah or Nigerian John Onaiyakan, feels on Pedro’s throne is not a utopia. And it is that an African Pope would send a clear message: the Church is no longer exclusively Roman, not even European. It is truly global.
Divine policy The voting process will be the same as in previous centuries, the cardinals will swear absolute secret and vote in successive rounds until a candidate reaches the necessary two thirds. Each day will begin and end with a solemn prayer. And if there is agreement, the white smoke will announce the choice to the world.
Among the voters, there will be four Argentine cardinals well recognized by our church: Víctor Manuel Fernández, Ángel Sixto Rossi, Vicente Bokalic Iglic and Mario Aurelio Poliall weight figures in the Bergoglio era, although with different profiles. The vote, although covered with solemnity, is a deeply political act. Here national alliances, block strategies and discrete campaigns operate. The Holy Spirit, believers say, guide the choice. Analysts know that Vatican diplomacy also has its own invisible hand.
Francisco left a less rigid church, but also more divided. Your successor must decide whether deepening unfinished reforms or if you try to retreat towards more traditional positions to recompose internal unit. The choice that began to take shape in Rome will define, to a large extent, if the legacy of Bergoglio will be consolidated or corrected. Moreover, he will say if the 21st century will finally be that of a really universal church. Meanwhile, San Pedro’s bells continue to play. And the world looks towards the Vatican, in search of a name, a face and a promise of faith.
