Analysts from UBS see a difficult phase ahead for Apple: A little exciting iPhone renewal and geopolitical risks could disappoint the expectations for 2025 and 2026.
• UBS warns of excessive expectations of Apple’s iPhone sales 2025/2026
• Slightly raised short-term sales estimates for March Quartal
• Geopolitical risks and weak demand could dampen growth
UBS analysts were recently careful about Apple’s future development. According to them, investors of the icon could weigh themselves in false security, because the prospect of strong quarterly figures should not hide the fact that long -term expectations could be too high. The UBS experts around David Vogt recently warned that demand could disappoint both this year and well into 2026.
Risk of stagnation
Specifically, Vogt also mentioned the too high expectations of the next iPhone, which should be presented in September. Only minor innovations can be expected here, and the introduction of Apple Intelligence – according to current assessments – should not set any significant demand pulses. All of this “increases the risk of iPhone demand in the 2026 financial year compared to the 2025 financial year,” says Marketwatch from the UBS analyst Vogt from a customer release.
Short -term estimates raised
In the short term, however, the UBS is more optimistic: Due to a possible prefabricated of about one million iPhone deliveries-due to impending US criminal offenses on China-the bank has adapted its estimates for the March quarter. For the period, iPhones sold and sales of $ 47.1 billion are now expected in this segment, almost 4 percent more than before. The demand for Macs is also slightly better than expected, the market watch continues.
Against this background, the UBS analytes for the March Quartal are now expecting sales of $ 95.5 billion after 93.5 billion US dollars. According to them, the profit per share should be $ 1.62-previously they had expected $ 1.56.
Nevertheless, UBS slightly corrected the winning expectations for the September quarter. Vogt also assumes that the current consensus estimates for the entire 2026 financial year are clearly too optimistic: its profit forecast is around 60 cents below the current analystal average. In addition, new geopolitical tensions, especially between the USA and China, could burden demand – even before possible macroeconomic weakening in the USA and Europe are noticeable. “In view of the geopolitical risks that could affect China demand in the second half of the 2025 financial year, before an economic weakening in the USA and Europe is considered, we see further downward risks for the consensus estimates for the number of iPhone,” says Marketwatch from the customer information.
Course goal for Apple share is reduced
Therefore, Vogt recently reduced the price target for the Apple share from 236 to $ 21, and meanwhile he kept the “neutral” rating. Compared to the latest closing price of $ 210.14 on Nasdaq (as of April 28, 2025), the adjustment no longer implies upward potential.
So far, it has not been too rosy for the icon share this year: the paper has already lost more than 16 percent in value. A mixed picture is shown among the Wall Street analysts: While 19 according to Tipranks advise you to buy, recommend 13 to keep the stock. There are three sales recommendations opposite. The average price target is $ 236.47 and thus almost 13 percent above the current level (state of the data: April 28, 2025).
Editor finance.net
By the way: Apple and other US shares are even tradable at Finance.net Zero until 11 p.m. (without order fees, plus spreads). Open Depot now for free And receive a free stock as a gift.
Selected leverage products on Apple
With knock-outs, speculative investors can participate disproportionately in price movements. Simply choose the desired lever and we will show you suitable open-end products on Apple
The lever must be between 2 and 20
Advertising