The start of the long electoral race of 2023 keeps the pulse between PP and PSOE, with rises and falls of both parties practically every week since the beginning of the year. With three months to go before the regional and municipal elections, and nine months for the general ones, the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo He continues in the first place, but the possibility of adding an absolute majority with the extreme right of Vox is not guaranteed. The PSOE of Pedro Sanchezon the other hand, has recovered in the early stages of a year with many electoral appointments but with a great common battle: the struggle between left and right for the hegemony of the Spanish political chessboard for the next four years.
2022 once again demonstrated the volatility of an electoral board that is very prone to the shocks that the economy provides or to the setbacks of the Government and opposition. The leader of the PP seems to have overcome the wear and tear caused by the blockade in the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary and the constitutional Courtbut the President of the Government, although he takes a breath, does not finish exceeding the bill that the reduction of the crime of embezzlement and the fiasco of the law of ‘only yes is yes’.
The average of all the polls on the general elections published since September 2022 keeps the PP in first position with 3.2 points lead over the PSOE, two tenths less at the end of January. Now Feijóo would achieve the 30.5% of the votes, one tenth more than last month. For his part, Sánchez would get the 27.2% of the votes, two tenths more than a month ago.
Converted that average into seats, the difference in favor of the Conservatives has been reduced to 23 seats, four less than at the end of January. The PP would get today 130 deputies and the PSOE, 107. In a month, Feijóo has lost one seat and Sánchez has won three. In April, when the former Galician president assumed the leadership of the party, the Prime Minister was 17 seats ahead of the PP. Since then, the popular ones have gained 24 deputies and the PSOE has raised one.
The calculations made by EL PERIÓDICO based on a formula used by Ivan Serranoa researcher at the UOC’s IN3 (Internet Interdisciplinary Institute), correspond to the Weighted average of the main published polls. The weighting is carried out, as in other formulas of this type, based on the sample size (the larger, the higher value) and of the field work date (the more recent, the more significant).
The respective communicating vessels of PP and PSOE (vox and United We Can) follow the trail of popular and socialist. Parallel to Feijóo’s setback, the extreme right of Santiago Abascal also yields two seats, up to the 43 deputies, and repeats the 14% of the votes that it has maintained since December. Since its setback in the Andalusian elections, Vox has lost five and a half points and 16 seats, but it could shield its status as the third political force in Congress without problems, although right now it would not have the exclusive key for Feijóo to reach Moncloa.
While the internal clashes in the Government continue due to the ‘only yes is yes’ law and the uncertainty surrounding Yolanda Díaz’s project, United We Can a tenth is left in the last month, up to 10.9% of the votes, but manages to scratch a seat, up to the 27 deputies. For its part, after the limited effects of the embezzlement reform on those prosecuted by the ‘procés’, CKD it suffers and would be left with 11 parliamentarians, one less than last month.
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The rest of the formations move, for the moment, in figures similar to those of January: Together for Catalonia would get 7 reps; GNP6; More Country, 3; and Spain Empty1. Undermined by internal fractures, polls continue to leave citizens out of Congress.
These averages would prevent Feijóo from reaching Moncloa only with the support of Vox, since both forces would add 173 seats, to three of the absolute majority. In fact, the PP has lost the three parliamentarians it added between December and January in the last month. The rights are still far above the 141 deputies that they harvested in the 2019 election, but the popular leader would need a third support or several abstentions to unseat the left. On the contrary, the sum of the current partners of the Government (134 seats) has recovered the four deputies that it lost at the turn of the year, but continues to be well below the current 155 representatives.