Which image of the results sticks with you?
“The Republicans can still take both the Senate and the House, and they can seriously thwart Biden’s policies, or even block them. Either way, the result will be disappointing. They’ve lost Senate seats they thought they’d keep, won fewer House seats than expected, and missed out on some of the governorships they’d counted on.
“It strikes me that someone like Lauren Boebert, a true radical Republican from Colorado, has been voted out of the House of Representatives. She owns a give coffee and a hardcore Trump fan, a face of the anti-democratic faction that takes conspiracy theories seriously. That such a person has been voted out is good news for American democracy.
“Another typical race took place in Michigan. Republican Peter Meijer won a seat in the House there two years ago. But Meijer turned against Trump by voting for his impeachment, and then lost the Republican primaries to a radical Trumpist. That Trumpist has now been defeated by the same Democrat who defeated Meijer two years ago. Those are signs that anti-democratic Republicans are doing worse than expected.’
Aren’t there just as well Trumpists who have done well?
‘Secure. Ron DeSantis, who was elected governor of Florida by a large majority, had a particularly good evening. He’s kind of a mini-Trump, but a cunning one. He looks like a healthy quarterback and is somewhat calmer and more solid than Trump, but is by no means moderate in his views. That seems to have been a winning recipe this election.
“Even the moderately progressive city of Miami, which traditionally goes to the Democrats, chose him. The Republican party has, of course, realized that: this DeSantis, that’s someone with whom you can win elections. It will empower him to run for president in two years’ time, and even take on Trump in the Republican primary.
“Something similar applies to JD Vance, a Republican Senate candidate who won in Ohio. He is a Trumpist who makes dubious statements, almost racist, but he comes across as more solid and intellectual than Trump. He has served in Iraq and is the author of a successful book, Hillbilly Elegyabout the hillbillies in the Appalachians. The unguided missiles had a hard time this election, the more guided missiles, so to speak, did well.’
It is still exciting who will get the majority in the Senate. Much attention is paid to John Fetterman’s win in Pennsylvania. Why?
‘Because of the Senate seat, which can mean the difference for Democrats between having a majority or not, but also because of the symbolism. Fetterman has emerged as the hope of the Democrats. It’s a big tattooed guy from the old days rust belt, who has been mayor of a town near Pittsburgh and shows concern for ordinary Americans. He has tattooed the names of people who died violently under his rule on his arms.
He was not helped up by the Democratic elite and not a good man in a suit, but someone who has worked his way up on his own. A non-Clintonesque candidate who appeals to the working class. In that sense, he is a response to Trump, who six years ago rightly felt that there was much to be gained from the underclass that the Democrats had left behind.
“The Democrats have neglected their talent development for a while. After Obama’s huge victory, they thought just a little too easily that power would come to them naturally. Interesting politicians have emerged in the margins, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, but they have little chance of becoming nationally significant. For most Americans outside New York she is too much on the radical side for that. But people like Fetterman and Wes Moore—the new Maryland governor who, by the way, is more of an establishment—could be the Democratic faces of the future.’
The situation in the House of Representatives is also not yet clear, but at the moment it seems likely that the Democrats will lose their majority. What would that mean for the president?
Either way, if the Democrats lose the House, it will be harder for Biden to govern. Republicans can thwart legislation and start impeachment proceedings. Only, if they do win, that Republican majority seems to be getting quite small. That limits their options. It only takes a few dissident or moderate Republicans who don’t want to start impeachment for nothing, for example, and they can’t institute such proceedings. In that case, the likely Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, will have to work hard to keep all the frogs in the wheelbarrow.’