Chancellor Olaf Scholz balked at the hot mess for a long time. For weeks he couldn’t get the words ‘Nord Stream 2’ over his lips. Until his visit to Putin, the chancellor was unsure whether not using the controversial pipeline would be a conceivable sanction.
In December, Scholz called the pipeline, which carries gas from Russia to the German coast, another “private economic plan,” and the power agency’s review of that pipeline “completely apolitical.” Nevertheless, Scholz said on Tuesday morning that he would suspend that test for a while. It is the first clear sanction against Putin after he recognized two separatist areas in eastern Ukraine as independent on Monday and then Russian soldiers drove into them.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is not yet in operation. The sister pipeline Nord Stream 1 already supplies a wealth of Russian gas to Germany. To that extent, to stop Nord Stream 2 is a symbolic gesture. But its symbolism cannot be underestimated: the pipeline, decided on in 2015, has been a thorn in the side of the US and European partners from the start. Suspending it is first of all a sign that the West will act together, and that Germany no longer wishes to maintain a special relationship with Russia. In addition, Germany is highly dependent on Russian gas. The fact that Nord Stream 2 will not be taken into use for the time being signals that Germany is prepared to surrender. Vice-President of the Security Council Dimitri Medvedev reacted on Twitter to Scholz’ announcement that Europeans will soon have to pay 2000 euros per cubic meter of gas.
Half a year ahead
“Suppose gas supplies from Russia stop tomorrow, or as a sanction, Germany will no longer import Russian gas,” speculates energy engineer Marco Wünsch. “We would probably last until after the summer. We should be able to move forward about six months, provided the situation calms down in the fall.” Russia is by far the most important gas supplier in Germany; about 55 percent of all gas comes from Russian soil. 13 percent comes from the Netherlands, 30 percent from Norway. Moreover, in recent years, Germany has made itself more dependent on the Russian gas supplier Gazprom, and the traffic light coalition that took office in December is committed to more gas for the next ten years.
In 2014, a significant part of the German gas storage facility was sold to Gazprom. The largest Western European storage facility in Rehden, near Bremen, now belongs to the Russian gas group. Last Saturday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen accused Gazprom of deliberately storing and withholding gas as gas prices skyrocketed. She called it “very strange behavior for a company.” Although it may not be that strange, since it is a Russian state-owned company.
At the beginning of February, the group announced that it plans to nominate former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, already a director of the Russian oil company Rosneft and Nord Stream AG, as a member of the supervisory board in the summer. Whether this is good news for the German energy consumer remains to be seen; Schröder, who recently accused Ukraine of “clattering weapons” in his podcast, has been accused by critics in Berlin of promoting Russian interests rather than German ones.
Transition Period
At the beginning of December presented agreement of the traffic light coalition It is emphatically stated that in the coming years, in addition to wind and solar energy, the focus will be on gas and on the construction of new gas-fired power stations. ‘Natural gas is indispensable for a transitional period’, the agreement states. Germany wants to close coal-fired power stations as soon as possible, but before 2030. The last nuclear power stations must also close this year. Windmills and solar panels are to be built in the next decade, but that will be too slow to fill the gaps left by coal and nuclear power.
According to forecasts, the share of gas in the total energy market will increase from 24 percent in 2018 to 30 percent in 2030, while the share from renewable energy sources should increase from 14 percent in 2018 to 36 percent in 2030. Minister Robert Habeck (Economic Affairs and Climate Action , De Groenen) plans to have the necessary gas-fired power stations built in such a way that they can eventually be converted into hydrogen-powered power stations where sustainably obtained energy can be stored.
“Most gas is used for heating,” says expert Wünsch. “It takes time to reduce that demand and instead focus on heat pumps or heat distribution.” According to Wünsch, the Scholz government is doing almost everything it can to achieve this transformation as quickly as possible.
Germany gets 13 percent of all its gas from the Netherlands. At the beginning of this year it became clear that Germany needs more gas than expected from the Netherlands, or Groningen. Groningen gas cannot simply be replaced by other gas, because Groningen gas is low-calorific and Norwegian or Russian gas is generally high-calorific. After the news that extra gas may have to be extracted in Groningen, partly due to increased demand from Germany, thousands of people took to the streets in Groningen. Rutte said in the House that he had discussed the matter with Olaf Scholz during his visit to Berlin, and that the “conversation is now continuing between the two ministers”. Inquiries show that State Secretary Hans Vijlbrief (Mining, D66) spoke about it in a video conference with his German colleague State Secretary Patrick Graichen (Economic Affairs and Climate Action) at the end of January.
Nuclear energy
A second theme on which the interests between Germany and the Netherlands diverge is nuclear energy. In March 2011, just days after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Germany led by Angela Merkel decided to move away from nuclear energy, which the German government considers “unsustainable” and “risky”. That atomausstieg is expected to be completed in Germany by the end of this year. The Rutte IV coalition agreement states that the Netherlands wants to keep the nuclear power plant in Borssele open for longer and is taking steps to build two new nuclear power plants.
Wünsch: “The development of a nuclear power plant takes a very long time, then you are talking about ten, fifteen years, and it is incredibly expensive. I understand that nuclear powers such as France or the United Kingdom stick to nuclear energy, because they must also have the know-how and therefore also run civilian nuclear reactors. For the Netherlands, with all its potential from wind energy, I do not think it is a meaningful decision. Wind is cheaper and faster.” The German Ministry of Economic Affairs reacts more resignedly, writing that each EU member state is free to “make decisions about the energy mix independently”.
The ministry also says that emergency programs are ready in case the import of Russian gas comes to a complete standstill. But in the longer term, the ministry chooses to move forward: “The development of renewable energy sources is the only correct answer to reduce dependence on imports and to keep energy prices stable.”
Minister Christian Lindner (Finance, FDP) underlined this Monday in an interview in the Financial Times also the need to become less dependent on Russian gas. Unlike his green colleague Habeck, liberal Lindner is betting on liquefied gas. He called it a possible positive by-product of the crisis if Germany finally accelerates the development of methane terminals where ships carrying liquid gas, mainly from the United States, can dock.
With the collaboration of Claudia Kammer
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 23, 2022