With 13 seats, VVD will be by far the largest party in the Provincial Council of Brabant, while the BBB will gain 6 seats in one fell swoop. PVV doubles from 4 to 8 seats and thus becomes the second party in Brabant. There is no evidence of a left cloud yet. This is evident from an election survey by EenVandaag and market research agency Ipsos.
Between 21 and 27 February 500 Brabant voters asked what they will vote for Provincial Council on March 15. This poll is not a prediction, but it does give a picture of the current political situation. The margin of error is on average 2 seats per party. Small profits or losses are therefore uncertain, while larger differences do show a clear movement.
The results compared to four years ago:
- VVD: 13 (+3)
- PVV: 8 (+4)
- BBB: 6 (new)
- SP: 6 (+1)
- CDA: 5 (-3)
- GreenLeft: 4 (-1)
- D66: 3 (-2)
- Party for the Animals: 3 (+1)
- Volts: 3 (new)
- Labor Party: 2 (-1)
- 50PLUS: 1 (-1)
- Forum for Democracy: 1 (-8)
ChristenUnie-SGP and Local Brabant lose their only States seat in this study.
Researcher at EenVandaag Jeroen Kester: “It is striking in this poll that the VVD wins 3 seats and coalition partner CDA loses 3. The loss of the CDA is offset by a significant gain for the BBB and that the Forum for Democracy collapses.”
Newcomers take seats
The BBB is taking part in the provincial elections for the first time this year. According to this poll, Caroline van der Plas’ party would enter the Provincial Council of Brabant with 6 seats.
Volt is also doing well in the poll. With 3 seats in Brabant, Volt is not better estimated in any other province.
Forum soap
The collapse of Forum for Democracy is a different story. The party gained 9 seats in one go. After internal disagreements, one of them remained.
Three Forum members went over to JA21 (Group Rutjens) and three to BVNL (Group De Bie). Two seats are currently vacant. Forum is now at 1 seat in the poll. JA 21 and BVNL both failed to get a single seat. In addition to the BBB, the PVV also seems to benefit mainly from the loss of Forum.
Left versus right
Nationally, the VVD and the ‘left cloud’ of PvdA and GroenLinks have entered into a duel with each other. That is a classic election tactic to attract voters. The two left-wing parties previously indicated that they would not step into a new college without each other in Brabant.
In Brabant, there seems to be no question of a left-wing cloud yet. Currently, the PvdA and GroenLinks are both losing 1 seat. Coalition partner D66 would hand in 2.
In the poll of EenVandaag and Ipsos, Jesus Lives, Alliantie, AWP and Elderly Appèl-Hart for Brabant do not get a seat.
On 15 March you can vote for the Provincial Council. On March 6, Omroep Brabant is organizing a party leaders’ debate that will be published on March 10 and 11.