The fall in house prices has generally not yet affected Dutch homeowners. An owner-occupied home in the Netherlands has an average surplus value of 175,000 euros, calculated market researcher Calcasa.
According to the researchers, this means that the housing market still has enough ‘fat on its bones’ to withstand a possible further fall in prices.
3 million owner-occupied homes have changed hands since 1993
According to Calcasa, the Netherlands currently has approximately 8.1 million homes. These represent a total home value of more than 3 trillion euros. When calculating the surplus value, Calcasa looked at existing owner-occupied homes that changed hands since January 1, 1993. These are approximately 3 million homes in total, with a total value of more than 1.2 trillion euros and an average home value of 445,000 euros. Compared to the purchase price, this amounts to an average of 175,000 euros in equity per home, according to the researchers.
Calcasa emphasizes that the actual surplus value is higher for many homes. This is partly because the mortgage financing can also be less than 100 percent of the purchase price and interim mortgage repayments are made.
Places with the highest and lowest surplus values do not differ much from each other
In places with a large share of million-dollar homes, such as Aerdenhout, Bloemendaal and Blaricum, the average equity is highest. That’s several tons.
Homeowners in Kerkrade and Sittard have to make do with the lowest average equity. In Kerkrade it is on average 85,000 euros, in Sittard it is just over a ton. It should be noted that houses there cost less on average.
In terms of percentage of the house value, the places with the highest and lowest equity do not differ much from each other.
Consequences of price drops
The researchers also looked at the extent to which the Dutch housing stock can withstand price falls, with the prospect of a period of lower house prices. In a scenario with a price fall of 10 percent per year, it will take until early 2028 for the surplus value to evaporate. In a scenario with a 5 percent fall per year, this will take until 2033. With an average sustained fall of 3 percent per year, it will take until 2040 before the excess value has disappeared.