What does the Government pact signed on Tuesday mean, with all pomp and abundant leftist invocations, between Pedro Sánchez and Yolanda Díaz? First of all, a great exaggeration, the result of confusing desires with reality. And try to make them swallow. It is not a government pact because the signatories remain far from the majority necessary for the investiture, for which they also need ERC, Junts, Bildu, PNV and BNG. And it is clear that today this agreement is as far away as it was last week.
Are we still in the time-out that I analyzed on Sunday? Basically yes, but not completely The PSOE-Sumar agreement is a necessary condition, although not sufficient, to then reach an investiture pact and therefore a Government pact. It is therefore not a government pact, but rather a first draft of pact which, yes, has been presented with great pomp. Because it is a pressure on Puigdemont so that you can assume that time is not infinite. But, more importantly, it is a message to the very diverse electorate, contrary to the PP, which gained a majority on July 23, that Sánchez’s investiture is going ahead and that it will not be like Feijóo’s that ended with the same 172 deputies, four from the absolute majority, from which he started.
but there is more pomp and propaganda than substance because even before 23J it was known that the PSOE and Sumar, if the mix of the 10 parties of Yolanda Díaz’s coalition did not explode, would agree – if they could – to try to govern. And they can because the PP and Vox do not have a majority and the Sumar coalition, although cracks emerge -Pablo Echenique He just said that with Yolanda Díaz the old politics returns – it is not foreseeable that it will disintegrate anytime soon. Not before the possible investiture.
But this pompous pre-pact is also a kind of oath between the PSOE and Sumar to try again if in the end there is no investiture and we are going to new elections on January 14. We must reaffirm that the investiture is closer, although it is uncertain. And if the left-wing electorate fails, it should not become discouraged and demobilize. In any case, the fault would be Puigdemont and it will be said again that Junts is the Catalan right.
The document indicates a certain radicalization. The labor reform was agreed upon with the CEOE and now the reduction of working hours and compensatory dismissal are wanted to be imposed by law
For this reason, the document does not talk about the amnesty – it is a matter to be dealt with with the divided Catalan independence movement and the possible obstacle of the investiture – and is committed to a certain radicalization of the past Frankenstein Government. Let’s not go into depth, but the last legislature – or at least its first part – was characterized in socioeconomic matters by a firm desire for consensus. Thus the labour reform -which has worked more well than badly- had the advantage of having been negotiated down to the last detail with the unions and with the business community, basically with the CEOE of Garamendi, intellectually armed by Fátima Báñez, Rajoy’s former Labor Minister. The PP opposed it, with the providential exception due to the mistake of one of its deputies, but it was left alone.
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Now it’s very different. They want to reduce by law the working day from 40 to 37.5 hours, seeking then – not before – an agreement with employers. Let’s implement together what we have already imposed on you. And the same thing happens when it comes to increasing in some cases the cost of “compensatory” dismissal, which would somehow break the labor reform pact. It is evident that reducing the working day while maintaining the salary could reduce the competitiveness of some sectors and smaller companies. That’s why businessmen have come out against it. Although an employer leader tells me that he is not too worried because it is just propaganda, a toast to the sun. In the event that there is an investiture, neither the PNV nor Junts will ever endorse – he says – a reduction in working hours without negotiation with employers.
By the way, in social negotiation it seems that the CEOE may lose the exclusivity that it had until now (thanks to the fact that Cepyme was the voice of small business), with the recognition of withpymes, another Spanish employer association of small and medium-sized companies whose main animator is Antoni Cañete, president of the Catalan Pimec. How would it work a new Garamendi-Sánchez Llibre-Cañete business triangle?