• Tesla announces delivery increase
• Automaker is optimistic
• Analysts forecast fewer deliveries
In mid-October, Tesla published its business figures for the third quarter of 2022. The figures were largely as expected – just below analyst forecasts and yet higher than in any previous quarter. Sales rose to a new record of $21.45 billion. The automaker reiterated its own plans to achieve a 50 percent increase in deliveries this year.
Analyst forecast for the fourth quarter
With 908,573 deliveries so far in 2022, Tesla would have to deliver around 500,000 more cars in the last quarter to achieve this growth target of 50 percent. That would correspond to the total production volume for 2020. Tesla itself seems optimistic, but not everyone shares the optimism: A Tesla observer, who calls himself Troy Teslike on Twitter, predicted significantly lower numbers for the fourth quarter in a tweet.
Q4 estimates were as follows on Oct 11.
Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q4 2022:
• My estimate: 400K (same as Oct 9)
• Analyst consensus: 435K (same as Oct 9)This update includes Tesla China numbers for Q3 which were released on Oct 11. pic.twitter.com/jJACIwJzgi
– Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) October 21, 2022
Delivery destination not achievable according to private prognosis
According to Troy Teslike, the carmaker will deliver 400,000 cars, and the forecasts of professional analysts on the stock market with 435,000 deliveries are not quite as optimistic as those of Tesla itself. He justifies the difference with Tesla’s announcement that delivery peaks will be abolished at the end of the quarter. With the delivery expected by Troy Teslike, Tesla would only achieve an increase of 39.8 percent.
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