Defense expert Ko Colijn has been providing Dutch people with information on armed conflicts for over forty years. For NU.nl he follows the battle in Ukraine and answers our (and your) questions. This time: Why the Battle of the Donets Basin is now mainly an artillery duel.
After the failed attack on the capital Kyiv, the Russian military operation (which Russian President Vladimir Putin should not call war) has switched to plan B: the strangulation of the eastern Donets basin.
That requires different combat equipment on both sides. No more vulnerable convoys on the Russian side and no more long supply lines via Belarus from distant Russia. And – last but not least – no more surprised soldiers, who in the first days hardly knew what was happening to them and even thought they were on training in Belarus for a few days.
On the Ukrainian side, there is now much less need for kamikazedrones to stop Russian convoys or anti-tank guns to destroy old Soviet tanks.
Not that Ukraine no longer needs them in the Donets basin, but part two of the war is more like a battle between cannons and missiles. An artillery duel, the specialists say. This should eventually pave the way for advancing foot soldiers and tanks that have to chase the invasion force (Ukraine) or occupy the Donets basin (Russia).
In order to advance, the Russians must first take out the piece de résistance of the Ukrainian army: 40,000 well-trained soldiers, who have been in the trenches since 2014. That doesn’t seem to work well either.
Time for the guns
Western countries, first of all the United States, initially sent mainly weapons that were ‘defensive’, so as not to irritate Putin. They required no additional training, as they were simple. Subsequently, the US also sent weapons to Eastern European countries, which in turn gave their older Soviet weapons to Ukraine. This provoked angry reactions from the Kremlin, but these weapons reached the front effortlessly via Polish airports, often within a few days.
Now it’s the turn of the artillery. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at the end of April that it would be decisive for the war in the coming months. Not much later, the US also made clear why: not only to stop the Russians in Ukraine, but also to ensure that Russia will be left weakened and unable to undertake similar foreign adventures in the coming years.
Of the weapons Ukraine needs for the artillery duel in the Donets Basin, we pick the howitzer. These are heavy cannons that can shoot 30 to 50 kilometers with grenades that weigh up to 50 kilos each. The most modern are very precise and can fire about eight of those grenades in a minute.
A total of about 150 howitzers have been pledged to Ukraine, more than a hundred of them by the US. Half is already deployed in the Donets basin. Russian attempts to block airstrike transports by attacking train stations (“infrastructure”) from the air have largely failed.
Since the beginning of May (but secretly at least half a month longer), the 155mm guns from US army depots have been sliding into the bellies of C-17 Globemaster II transport planes. They are flown from the March Air Reserve Base in the US state of California to Poland and then travel on to Ukraine.
US military personnel load M777 155mm howitzers destined for Ukraine into a transport plane at a naval base in California in late April.
US military personnel load M777 155mm howitzers destined for Ukraine into a transport plane at a naval base in California in late April. Photo: Reuters
Self-propelled or behind the tractor
Howitzers are self-propelled or can be hung from a ‘tractor’. The first kind is more mobile and needs fewer people. (If the tractor people can also deal with those self-propelled vehicles, you also have a backup.)
Mobility is an advantage, because the Ukrainians know the area and constantly change their position, while the Russians often get lost in the swampy landscape. Another advantage is that the howitzer can be used 24/7 and in all weather conditions. The US supplies night vision goggles with the guns.
It comes with 200,000 grenades, much more than Ukraine will need. By way of comparison: during the 2003 operation in Iraq ‘only’ a thousand were fired (but the US Air Force was again much more active there).
The howitzers form a so-called kill chain (“chain of death”) if you also supply counter-radar and communication equipment. The counter-radar calculates where an enemy grenade is coming from within three seconds, so the enemy howitzer can expect an immediate counterattack, often a rake.
Operation requires some training
The Pentagon has been familiarizing a number of Ukrainian military personnel with this radar equipment since 2015. An additional 14 contra radars are now being provided to Ukraine, and other NATO countries are likely to supply these devices as well.
Operating the howitzers also requires some training. More than 250 Ukrainian soldiers receive a five-day crash course at three different secret places in Western Europe (probably in Germany).
Handling state-of-the-art guns normally requires three months of practice; nice, but the Russians also have pretty old material, so you don’t even have to use the crème de la crème. Russian howitzers are quite rigid and easily give their location to cheap Ukrainian drones or even American satellites. And sometimes you also pick up a Russian general, because they are often at the front.
The American howitzer training is provided by the American National Guard, flown in from the US state of Florida. Before February 24 (the first day of the Russian invasion) it was already active in Ukraine itself, together with the Canadians.
A Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika (self-propelled howitzer) in action in the Kharkiv region in early May.
A Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika (self-propelled howitzer) in action in the Kharkiv region in early May. Photo: Reuters
Missiles on Russia?
The US spends a whopping 250 million dollars (more than 236 million euros) on the howitzers. That’s a fraction of the total $4 billion arms aid package. Two weeks ago, US President Joe Biden was authorized to set aside more than $30 billion over the next few months, so we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg.
The next stage is exciting; At the end of April, Secretary Austin already spoke about delivering “decisive” long range“Perhaps he was referring to howitzers that can reach the 50 kilometers, but the next plea from Kyiv will be about missile launchers from manufacturer Lockheed, which can easily target targets in Russia itself. In the search for Putin’s ‘red lines’, that is the final step towards “bad” and “uncontrollable.” Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, although some experts think Putin deserves it by now.
And do the guns falter? Don’t worry, Slovakia has already offered a repair facility, where Americans will probably also come to help.